格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, concerns about methanol exports, a significant rebound in crude oil prices, inventory accumulation in ports and inland areas last week, expected reduction in imported arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans for olefin plants. It is expected to fluctuate broadly and strongly in the short term, with the 05 contract reference range of 2240 - 2350. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 37 yuan to 2299 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East - China region fell 3 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 14,056 lots to 445,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 15,882 lots to 607,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous period. In the East - China region, inventory increased by 57,200 tons; in the South - China region, inventory decreased by 16,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 447,700 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94% [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,500 tons, an increase of 29,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16%. The olefin operating rate is 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 75.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 67.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was $259.09/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of $261.53/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - Geopolitical: Trump ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Iran, and his tougher stance on Iran raised concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's fourth - largest oil - producing country and potential US intervention, causing oil prices to climb to a two - month high [2] Market Logic - Unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East may affect methanol exports, combined with a significant rebound in crude oil prices. After inventory accumulation in ports and inland areas last week, imported arrivals are expected to decrease after mid - January, and olefin plants have restart plans. So methanol faces weak current situation but strong future expectations, and will fluctuate broadly and strongly in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]