格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical sector is bullish [2] Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are ongoing, with crude oil prices rebounding significantly overnight. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side saw improved operations. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate in a wide range with a bullish trend. The reference range for the 03 contract is 5480 - 5750 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction prices in the US dollar pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 rose by 123 yuan to 5679 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5455 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 50), and the spot price in Shandong was 5325 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 10). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 1325 to 20,300 hands, and the number of short positions increased by 698 to 25,500 hands [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%; compared to the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pick - ups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in the monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation. Yesterday in Shandong, about 2,000 tons were counted, with a low end of 5300 and a high end of 5345 [2] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month and increased by 5.93% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [2] - Oil Price: The instability in Iran has not been completely eliminated, and the potential supply risks continue, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.65 US dollars/barrel to 61.15 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 2.77%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.60 US dollars/barrel to 65.47 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 2.51%. China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.6 to 439.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 12.2 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night [2] - Geopolitical Event: Trump ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Iran, stating that "all meetings with Iranian officials have been cancelled." His tougher stance on Iran has increased market concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's fourth - largest oil - producing country and possible US intervention, causing oil prices to climb to a two - month high [2] Market Logic - The price of pure benzene will fluctuate in a wide range with a bullish trend in the short term. Future focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction prices in the US dollar pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish approach [2]