棉价跌势暂缓，反弹收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil is expected to trade sideways, palm oil is expected to trade sideways with an upward bias, and rapeseed oil is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias [5]. - Protein Meals: Soybean meal is expected to trade sideways, and rapeseed meal is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias [9]. - Corn/Starch: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias [13]. - Hogs: Expected to trade sideways [15]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias; 20 - rubber is expected to trade sideways [18]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the medium - term [20]. - Cotton: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the long - term [21]. - Sugar: Expected to trade sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [23]. - Offset Printing Paper: Expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the month, with attention to correction risks [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade within a range [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, considering factors such as policy, supply and demand, weather, and macro - economic conditions. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting the complexity of the agricultural market and the need for investors to consider multiple factors when making investment decisions [5][8][13]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: USDA report is relatively bearish, and the market should pay attention to macro factors. - Logic: The USDA report increased US soybean harvest area and production, decreased exports, and raised ending stocks, contrary to market expectations. Palm oil exports are strong, and domestic soybean auctions and压榨开机 rates are factors to watch. The macro - economic environment, including China's monetary policy and global oil prices, also affects the market [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil to trade sideways, palm oil to trade sideways with an upward bias, and rapeseed oil to trade sideways with a downward bias [5]. Protein Meals - Viewpoint: Multiple factors coexist, and the market is trading sideways. - Logic: The January supply - demand report is bearish for US soybeans, while South American soybeans have a high probability of a bumper harvest. In China, soybean auctions are active, and there are mixed signals in the domestic market, such as inventory and demand [8]. - Outlook: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal to trade sideways, and rapeseed meal to trade sideways with a downward bias [9]. Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The market is trading at a high level sideways. - Logic: Policy grain releases, weather conditions, and supply - demand fundamentals, including farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, drive the market [13]. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias [13]. Hogs - Viewpoint: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are trading sideways. - Logic: Short - term supply pressure is not significant, but there may be early sales before the Spring Festival. Medium - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. Demand is affected by the festival season, and inventory levels are a factor [15]. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways, with short - term weakness and long - term potential for price increases [15]. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: Follows the macro - trading logic. - Logic: Rubber prices are driven by macro factors and fund rotation. The fundamental supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is weak after the price increase [18]. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the short - term, with attention to potential corrections [18]. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Trading at a high level sideways. - Logic: The medium - term upward logic is based on the expected improvement in butadiene fundamentals. Short - term price increases may be affected by market adjustments [20]. - Outlook: Medium - term expected to trade sideways with an upward bias, with short - term pressure [20]. Cotton - Viewpoint: The downward trend has paused, and prices rebounded. - Logic: Long - term price increase is expected, with short - term adjustments due to profit - taking. The long - term drivers are the expected "tight balance" in 2025/26 and the expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [21]. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the long - term, with a strategy of buying on dips [21]. Sugar - Viewpoint: Supply is increasing marginally, and prices are under pressure. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new season, especially in major producing countries. Prices are under downward pressure during the northern hemisphere's harvest season [21]. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term, with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [21]. Pulp - Viewpoint: The market is trading sideways, with attention to increasing bearish factors. - Logic: Fundamental factors include both bullish and bearish elements. Bullish factors are rising import costs and high demand, while bearish factors are cost - transfer difficulties and seasonal demand decline. The market is also affected by capital flows [22]. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways, with attention to negative demand feedback in the long - term [22]. Offset Printing Paper - Viewpoint: The market is weakening due to commodity corrections. - Logic: The market is affected by supply - demand imbalances, with high industry capacity and weak downstream demand. Publishers'提货 is ending, and social demand is light [24]. - Outlook: Expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the month, with attention to correction risks [24]. Logs - Viewpoint: The market is trading sideways with reduced positions by the main players. - Logic: The market is driven by its own fundamentals, with limited macro - economic impact. Supply pressure is expected to ease in January - February, and the market is expected to trade within a range [25]. - Outlook: Expected to trade within a range [25].