有?观点：抢出口预期再起，供需改善预期推高基本金属-20260114

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and concerns about supply disruptions remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, the potential for incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - Viewpoint: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - Analysis: The US CPI in December 2026 was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at a record low of $0/ton and $0 cents/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed. - Logic: The Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. Copper supply is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, the long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic [7][8]. Alumina - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and expected to fluctuate. - Analysis: On January 13, the alumina spot price in the north was flat, while the national weighted index and prices in some regions declined. The alumina warehouse receipts increased. - Logic: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory accumulation trend, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. Aluminum - Viewpoint: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - Analysis: On January 13, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in major consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises are promoting the "aluminum for copper" standard, and a company is transferring its production capacity. - Logic: The US interest - rate cut expectation remains, and China's "two new" policies are continuing. The supply is constrained in the medium term, and although high prices have suppressed demand in the short term, the overall supply - demand outlook is positive [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: Cost support continues, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - Analysis: On January 13, the price of Baotai ADC12 was flat. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The supply is constrained by raw material shortages and policy factors, while the demand is expected to improve with the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy. The inventory shows a mixed trend [15][16]. Zinc - Viewpoint: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and zinc prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. - Analysis: On January 13, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia is damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply. - Logic: The macro - environment is relatively stable. The zinc ore supply is short - term tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high, but there is a downward risk in the long term [17][20]. Lead - Viewpoint: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has cooled, and social inventory has accumulated, leading to a downward trend in lead prices. - Analysis: On January 13, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. - Logic: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable. The supply is increasing as smelters resume production, while the demand is weakening, especially in the electric bicycle sector [22]. Nickel - Viewpoint: Policy expectations are conflicting with the weak reality, and nickel prices have回调. - Analysis: On January 13, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory decreased. SMM predicts a significant increase in the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in the second half of January. - Logic: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. The policy on Indonesian nickel ore quotas is uncertain, which affects the market outlook [23][24]. Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: The decline in nickel prices has led to a downward trend in the stainless - steel market. - Analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 has a certain premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is expected to rise. - Logic: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Although the production in January may increase slightly, the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season [25]. Tin - Viewpoint: Supply constraints are intensifying, and tin prices are expected to be strong. - Analysis: On January 13, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, while the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingots increased. - Logic: Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are limiting tin production. The demand for tin is increasing in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors, and the low inventory in the industry chain also supports prices [26][27]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.30% to 2425.27, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.28% to 2779.12, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.52% to 2348.14. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 13 was 2809.16, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day decline of 1.30%, a 1 - month increase of 8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.59% [150][152].