美国核?通胀不及预期，?银延续强势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2026, the US core inflation was lower than expected, and the environment of declining real interest rates continued. Meanwhile, political and judicial uncertainties surrounding the Fed's independence repeatedly fermented, making the US dollar credit and policy credibility core variables in market pricing. Precious metals remained strong under both macro and institutional logics [1]. - After digesting the phased disturbances of the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight adjustment, gold and silver maintained an overall oscillating and strengthening pattern under the resonance of long - term expectations of loose liquidity, pro - cyclical trading, and resource security concerns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Global central banks collectively supported Jerome Powell, and central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada jointly emphasized that central bank independence is the cornerstone of financial stability, highlighting the rapidly increasing systemic concerns in the market about the weakening of the Fed's monetary autonomy [2]. - The Iranian domestic protests escalated into a high - intensity humanitarian risk event, with the death toll possibly reaching thousands, and there were warnings of large - scale extra - judicial executions, further amplifying political and security uncertainties in the Middle East [2]. - Under the continuous pressure from the US, Iran showed signs of releasing seized oil tankers. A tanker seized two years ago appeared off the coast of Oman, indicating a marginal easing of geopolitical games, but energy channel and sanctions risks were still repetitive [2]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in inflation provided a fundamental buffer, and institutional uncertainties increased the risk premium. In December, the US core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, remaining at a four - year low, showing a continuous cooling of the inflation trend. While the inflation constraint was marginally relieved, market doubts about the Fed's independence and future interest rate paths persisted, driving the "Sell America" trading to return periodically. The financial attributes and credit hedging value of gold strengthened simultaneously. Short - term gold prices changed hands more frequently near historical highs, but under the support of the expectation of declining real interest rates and central bank allocation demand, the correction was more likely to be rhythmic rather than trend - changing [3]. - Silver: It had an advantage in elasticity in a high - volatility environment, and its financial attributes dominated short - term pricing. Against the background of the strong performance of gold, silver continued its high - volatility characteristics. The decline in inflation reduced the expectation of tightening, providing support for the financial attributes of silver. At the same time, the previous structural tightness and high participation of speculative funds significantly amplified the elasticity of silver prices. Technical corrections after the amplification of short - term fluctuations should be vigilant, but before the macro - environment underwent a substantial reversal, the relative performance of silver remained strong [3]. Outlook - The central price of gold is expected to continue to rise, with the London Gold price to be monitored in the range of [4900 - 5000] US dollars per ounce. Silver may continue its high - volatility state, and the London Silver price should be monitored in the range of [90 - 100] US dollars per ounce. Attention should be paid to the phased retracement risks in the context of amplified fluctuations [4]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [46]. - Sector Index: On January 13, 2026, the precious metals index was 4222.51, with a daily increase of 0.15%, a five - day increase of 4.75%, a one - month increase of 15.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.41% [48].