中泰期货晨会纪要-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index may enter an adjustment phase if there is no further increase in volume to form a reverse enveloping negative line in the near future [12][13]. - The strategy for treasury bond futures is to flatten the yield curve [14]. - Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, but the rebound space may be limited [17][18]. - For manganese silicon, there is a contradiction between cost support and oversupply pressure in the short term; for silicon iron, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [19]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, hold long positions or partially cash in on rallies [20]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [22]. - Industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with no clear upward drive [23]. - For polycrystalline silicon, be cautious when holding positions due to strict position limits [24][25]. - Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term decline and consolidation state, and it is advisable to buy on dips [27]. - Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of shock and consolidation, and short - term trading in the low - level range is recommended [29]. - For eggs, the 02 and 03 contracts are expected to have limited upside space, but be vigilant about supply - side changes [32]. - Apple futures may run strongly, and the price is likely to fluctuate within a range [35]. - Corn futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and focus on the replenishment efforts at the grass - roots level this month [36]. - Red dates are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and pay attention to the sales area's sales rhythm [38]. - For live pigs, the spot price is likely to fluctuate and decline in the middle of January, and the futures main contract should be short - biased on rallies [39]. - Crude oil prices still have support in the short term due to the Iranian issue [39]. - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, and the focus is on the Iranian situation [41]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weak from a supply - demand perspective, and it is advisable to adopt a shock - trading mindset [42]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [44]. - For synthetic rubber, short - term short positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait and see [45]. - For methanol, the far - month contracts can be gradually considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [46]. - Caustic soda futures are affected negatively in the current environment [46]. - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range in the short term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. - For the polyester industry chain, consider the positive spread opportunities between PX and PTA from May to September [49]. - LPG still has some rebound momentum, and it is advisable to wait and see without chasing the rise [50]. - For pulp, the disk faces hedging pressure, but the downside space is limited [51]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance [52]. - Urea futures show a weak shock trend, and the long positions are actively reducing [53]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US - Iran situation is tense. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials, and the US State Department asked citizens to leave Iran. The US military is considering options, but the White House prefers diplomacy [8]. - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump will announce the next Fed Chairman in the coming weeks [8]. - Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. China will safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The G7 plans to reduce rare - earth imports from China, and China will maintain the stability of the global supply chain [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing industry self - discipline [9]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polycrystalline silicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years [9]. - A Chinese research team made progress in high - performance sodium - ion battery cathode materials [9]. - The US relaxed regulations on NVIDIA's H200 chip exports to China [9]. - SK Hynix will invest about $12.9 billion to build an advanced chip packaging factory in South Korea [9]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared with the previous value. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [10]. - The President of the St. Louis Fed believes there is little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [10]. - Japanese government bonds were sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration [10]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees for lithium carbonate futures contracts [10]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the A - share market fluctuated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.64% to 4138.76 points, ending a 17 - day winning streak. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new high [12]. - If the stock index fails to form a reverse enveloping negative line with increased volume, it may enter an adjustment phase [13]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The capital margin is converging, and the capital interest rate is rising slightly. The 600 billion yuan repurchase has not been renewed [14]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Policy: There are no new policies on the demand side, and the supply - side policy interference is low [16]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally, with seasonal demand pressure. The downstream demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply is stable, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - Valuation: The futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal are fluctuating, and the disk valuation is equivalent to the long - process cost [16]. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Policy: The "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies restrict coal production [18]. - Fundamentals: Coal supply is disturbed, and the coke price has been reduced four times. The iron - water output is increasing slightly [18]. - Trend: Double - coke prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, but the rebound space is limited [18]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore: The short - term performance is strong, but the profit transfer is difficult. Manganese silicon faces a contradiction between cost support and supply - demand surplus [19]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals are stable, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [19]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The supply is at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity [20]. - Glass: It is advisable to hold long positions or partially cash in on rallies. Pay attention to the cold - repair of production lines [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - Demand is expected to be better than the previous neutral expectation, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - price fluctuations [22]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - The previous over - supply expectation needs time to verify. The disk is expected to fluctuate, and there is no clear upward drive [23]. 3.4.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Due to strict position limits, the disk lacks industrial long positions to repair the basis. Be cautious when holding positions [24][25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term decline and consolidation. The USDA report is positive, but the domestic supply is loose in the short term. Pay attention to the pre - holiday replenishment and the next target - price subsidy policy [27][28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a state of shock and consolidation. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, but the domestic market has supply and demand support [29][30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 and 03 contracts are expected to have limited upside space. The current price increase may be due to supply reduction or increased consumption, which needs further observation [32][34]. 3.5.4 Apples - The disk may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the performance during the Spring Festival replenishment period is crucial [35]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term disk will fluctuate strongly. The current price increase reflects the short - term supply shortage. Pay attention to the grass - roots replenishment in January [36]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - They are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the mentality of purchasers [37][38]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract should be short - biased on rallies [39]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Iranian situation is tense, and the supply is in surplus. The short - term oil price still has support [39]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows oil prices, and the focus is on the Iranian situation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is high [41]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading mindset, and beware of callbacks [42]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It is expected to fluctuate. The cost is supported, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [44]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term short positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the raw - material price and downstream demand [45]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The far - month contracts can be gradually considered for a slightly long - biased allocation. Pay attention to the inventory at the port [46]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - It is affected negatively by the current environment. The spot market is weak, and the futures price shows a downward trend [46]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range in the short term. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider the positive spread opportunities between PX and PTA from May to September. The industry chain is affected by oil prices and demand [49]. 3.6.10 LPG - It still has some rebound momentum, and it is advisable to wait and see without chasing the rise. The supply and demand are affected by the Iranian situation and the season [50]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The disk faces hedging pressure, but the downside space is limited due to the support of the spot market and the strong foreign - market price [51]. 3.6.12 Logs - They are expected to fluctuate, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The domestic spot market is stable [52]. 3.6.13 Urea - The futures show a weak shock trend, and the long positions are actively reducing. The spot market is stable, but the new orders are weak [53].