中信期货研究（有?每?报告）：关税预期扰动与地缘风险仍在，铂钯宽幅震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 605.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of -3.2%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 483.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of -5.22% [3] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. The supply in South Africa faces risks, while the demand in the platinum market is expanding, and the "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity [3] - Affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - The main logic is that concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks have flared up again, and the "233" clause of the US Department of Commerce on critical minerals has no further news. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and then consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [3] - The outlook is that platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations [3] Palladium Analysis - The main logic is that the market expected the US to impose a 50% high - tariff on palladium on January 10. Palladium is being shipped to the US, intensifying non - US supply shortages. The policy has not been implemented yet, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to trade cautiously and wait for price stabilization to consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of demand, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3] - The outlook is that palladium prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [4] Commodity Index - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down - 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down - 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2348.14, down - 0.52% [50] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2809.16, with a daily decline of -1.33%, a 5 - day decline of -1.30%, a 1 - month increase of +8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of +4.59% [52]