宁证期货今日早评-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and concerns over the Fed's independence have led to a resurgence in precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - Geopolitical risks have driven up crude oil prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. - Steel prices may rise first and then fall this week, showing a range - bound pattern [3]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, and there is still upward momentum in both futures and spot prices [3]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon remains loose, and the price is expected to gradually decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - The short - term supply - demand game in the pig market continues, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with inventory accumulation suppressing the upside but strong support at the bottom [5]. - The upside of soybean meal prices is restricted, and the 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - The bond market is under pressure due to tightening funds, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and expected decline in imports [7]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and new production capacity pressure [8]. - PVC prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with sufficient supply, weak domestic demand, and rising inventory [9]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern, supported by long - term expectations but lacking short - term demand drive [10]. - PTA will transit in a fluctuating manner, with a supply increase and weakening demand as the holiday approaches [11]. - Natural rubber will be treated with a wide - range fluctuation, with rising raw material prices, inventory accumulation, and flexible production control in the demand side [12]. Summary by Product Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, but risk - aversion factors still exist. The Fed's independence has raised market concerns, leading to a resurgence in precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [1]. - Silver: The ongoing investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has affected market expectations. Risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing have led to a rise in silver prices, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. Energy - Crude Oil: API data shows an increase in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories. EIA predicts a decline in US crude oil production in the forecast period. Geopolitical risks have driven up prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. Metals - Steel: On January 13, domestic steel markets showed mixed trends. High costs support steel prices, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a decline in prices later this week, with a range - bound pattern [3]. - Coking Coal: The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased, and inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve, leading to upward momentum in prices [3]. - Manganese Silicon: The开工率 of silicon - manganese enterprises has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price is expected to decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - Copper: The US CPI growth rate has reached the lowest level since July 2025, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts in the second quarter have increased, which may boost copper prices in the short term. The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality", and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia will maintain the biodiesel policy at the B40 level. The domestic import profit has been significantly repaired, and the number of domestic purchases has increased. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Soybean Meal: The downstream feed enterprises have high inventory levels, and the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is still abundant, restricting the upside of prices. The 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - Pig: The national pig prices showed mixed trends. The supply - demand game will continue in the short term, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. Chemicals - Methanol: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has declined slightly, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - Soda Ash: The price of heavy - quality soda ash has declined slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen significantly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - PVC: The price has increased slightly, production is expected to increase slowly, and inventory has risen. The market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [9]. - PTA: The production of PTA has increased year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase in January. The demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the market will transit in a fluctuating manner [11]. - Natural Rubber: The raw material prices in Southeast Asia have stopped falling and rebounded, and domestic inventory has accumulated. The demand side is in a state of flexible production control, and the market will show a wide - range fluctuation [12]. Bonds - Short - term Treasury Bonds: Shibor short - term varieties have risen, indicating tightening funds. The bond market is under pressure, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6].