Guotou Securities·2026-01-14 01:38Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market-A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical risks involving the US and Iran may create opportunities for price increases in strontium carbonate [1]. - The demand for strontium carbonate is expected to accelerate due to its wide applications, particularly in high-quality optical glass and advanced packaging [2]. - The supply of strontium carbonate is highly dependent on Iran, which poses significant uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to price volatility [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Strontium carbonate (SrCO3) is a colorless crystalline compound with limited solubility in water, primarily used in various industries including electronics and metallurgy [2]. - The downstream consumption structure of strontium carbonate includes strontium ferrite (66.0%), metallurgy (6.9%), electronic components (3.3%), fireworks (2.1%), and other strontium salts (21.7%) [2]. Supply Chain Analysis - Iran holds 85% of the world's high-grade strontium mineral reserves, with a production share of 32.1% in 2022, making it the second-largest producer globally [3]. - China's strontium carbonate production is heavily reliant on imports, with 70% sourced from Iran, indicating a significant supply risk if geopolitical tensions escalate [3]. Company Focus - Key companies in the strontium carbonate sector include: - Hongxing Development with a production capacity of 30,000 tons/year, expected to increase to 60,000 tons/year post-project completion [4][10]. - Jinrui Mining with a current capacity of 20,000 tons/year and plans for further expansion [9][10]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, and any disruption in the supply of strontium minerals could lead to unexpected price increases [3].