2026年01月14日：期货市场交易指引-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1] - Rebar: Range - bound trading [1] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [1] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1] - Tin: Range - bound trading [1] - Gold: Range - bound trading [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1] - Styrene: Range - bound trading [1] - Rubber: Range - bound trading [1] - Urea: Range - bound trading [1] - Methanol: Range - bound trading [1] - Polyolefins: Weak and oscillating [1] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Oscillating adjustment [1] - Apples: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Jujubes: Bounce back from the bottom [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [1] - Eggs: For the 02 contract, breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies [1] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies [1] - Soybean meal: Treat the near - term contracts bullishly on dips and the far - term contracts bearishly [1] - Oils: Soybean and palm oils are stronger than rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agricultural and livestock. It analyzes the market conditions of each sector based on factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international situation, aiming to help investors make informed decisions. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Index futures: In the medium to long term, considering the expansion of December PMI and the strong expectation of early - stage policy implementation at the beginning of the year, the market is expected to develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks may lead to range - bound trading, which helps digest overbought pressure [5]. - Treasury bonds: In the short term, the decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to move in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory in ports is accumulating, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [8]. - Rebar: The futures price is in a range - bound state. The static valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8]. - Glass: Although the futures price rebounded last week, it is mainly due to short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction. The fundamental pattern has not changed, and it is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has experienced a "roller - coaster" ride. In the short term, the upward momentum has weakened, but in the long term, there is still a shortage expectation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the operating range may move down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10]. - Aluminum: The over - supply of alumina will continue, and policy expectations are uncertain. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12]. - Nickel: The production of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decrease, but the refining nickel is in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13]. - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [14]. - Silver: Due to factors such as the slowdown of the US economy and the increase in industrial demand, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16]. - Gold: Similar to silver, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and be cautious about chasing highs [16]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [17]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, and exports may increase. Although the current supply - demand situation is still weak, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to policies and cost fluctuations [18]. - Caustic soda: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the improvement of the market atmosphere of related commodities. It is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - Styrene: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - Rubber: The raw material price is strong, but the inventory in Qingdao Port is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a range [21]. - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and the export policy [22]. - Methanol: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is high, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the price in some areas is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate in a range [24]. - Polyolefins: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to be weak and oscillating [25]. - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving. Although the price has adjusted recently, it is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27]. - Apples: The market price of apples in storage is stable, and the trading volume is not large. The overall market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [27]. - Jujubes: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market is expected to bounce back from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, the supply and demand may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the long term, the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but it should be viewed cautiously. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [30]. - Eggs: The short - term price is expected to rise seasonally, but the supply is relatively sufficient, which may limit the increase. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [33]. - Corn: In the short term, the price increase is not strongly driven, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is looser than the previous year, which may limit the increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for grain - holding entities [35]. - Soybean meal: The short - term M2603 contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37]. - Oils: The performance of soybean and palm oils is stronger than that of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil and conduct rolling position building. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada negotiation from January 14 - 17 [43].