国新国证期货早报-20260114

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On January 13, 2026, the A-share market experienced a collective correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending its 17-day winning streak. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a record high of 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and international policies. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96% to 3321.89 points. The trading volume of the three markets reached 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on January 13, closing at 4761.03, a decrease of 28.88 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated weakly, closing at 1746.7, a decrease of 18.8 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 1193.9 yuan, a decrease of 30.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the supply side shows continuous recovery in coke - making enterprise operations, and the total coke inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The demand side shows an increase in blast furnace operations and daily hot metal production. Some coke - making enterprises in Inner Mongolia proposed a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. For coking coal, mine production capacity is recovering, Mongolian coal imports are relatively sufficient, and clean coal inventory is accumulating. However, coke - making enterprise profits are in greater deficit [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on January 13. As of January 12, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 21.18% compared to the same period last year. The Thai Sugar Board expects the country's sugar production to reach 10.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season and may reduce to 10 million tons in the next year. The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 4.7 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to improved weather in Southeast Asian producing areas, increased raw material supply, and reduced spot quotes, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on January 13. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail sales in 2025 were 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on January 13, CBOT soybeans were weak. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report confirmed the loose supply - demand pattern of the US soybean market, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 million tons. In the domestic market, on January 13, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The current soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level, and the resumption of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further enriches the domestic soybean supply [6]. Live Hogs - On January 13, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%. The supply of medium - and large - sized hogs has slightly decreased in the first half of this month, but there is still a possibility of early slaughter by pig enterprises before the Spring Festival. The seasonal consumption such as pickled pork and sausage is ongoing, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited [6]. Palm Oil - On January 13, the palm oil market continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed at 8778, an increase of 0.62% from the previous day. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects the 2026 palm oil inventory to be 2 million tons (compared to 3.05 million tons in 2025), the price to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton, and the production to be between 19.5 - 19.8 million tons (compared to 20.28 million tons in 2025) [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened at 104500 yuan/ton, reached a high of 104990 yuan/ton, a low of 101970 yuan/ton, and closed at 102480 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the off - season of domestic demand, the reduction of refined copper production, and the weak terminal consumption [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of January 13, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14745 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 642 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. Iron Ore - On January 13, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 819.5 yuan. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On January 13, the main asphalt 2603 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.66% and a closing price of 3140 yuan. The supply is at a low level, the inventory is accumulating, the demand has decreased significantly, and the short - term price is in a volatile state under the support of crude oil costs [7]. Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772, reached a low of 772, a high of 775.5, and closed at 774.5 on January 13, with a reduction of 254 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [7][8]. Steel - On January 13, rb2605 closed at 3158 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rising cost of coking coal supports steel prices, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and the short - term steel price increase may slow down and enter a volatile state [8]. Alumina - On January 13, ao2605 closed at 2780 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remains high, the supply is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The consumption side shows weak ore transactions and a general trading atmosphere [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 13, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is relatively positive for the non - ferrous market. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products may stimulate short - term demand. The supply is normal, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is shrinking [8][9].