国泰君安期货所长早读-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].