国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides investment views and strategies for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The views range from valuation concerns and caution in chasing prices for iron ore to different types of price oscillations (repeated, wide, high-level) for other commodities, and a short-term narrow price adjustment for thermal coal [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The futures price of iron ore closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.36%. The open interest of I2605 was 653,307 lots, a decrease of 1,527 lots. Imported and domestic ore spot prices mostly declined slightly, with the base price and spreads showing minor changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year [4]. - Trend Intensity: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The RB2605 rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, unchanged, and HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures closed at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.09%. Rebar trading volume was 837,879 lots, and open interest decreased by 38,760 lots; hot-rolled coil trading volume was 404,061 lots, and open interest increased by 12,752 lots. Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 8, steel output increased, total inventory of rebar rose while that of hot-rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand for both declined. In late December 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased in quantity and price [7][9]. - Trend Intensity: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes, with trading volumes and open interests varying. Spot prices of silicon-manganese increased, and manganese ore prices also rose. Price differences such as basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads changed accordingly [11]. - Macro and Industry News: Iron alloy prices in different regions had adjustments, and major manganese ore suppliers announced increased prices for February 2026 shipments. A large steel group increased its silicon-manganese procurement in January [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The JM2605 coking coal futures closed at 1,191 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 3.8%, and J2605 coke futures closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.4%. Trading volumes and open interests decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [15]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 13, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed an increase in the price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, and the port coke spot market was weak [15]. - Trend Intensity: Both coke and coking coal had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - Price and Position Data: Prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The January long-term agreement prices for Shanxi and Shaanxi also decreased [18]. - Macro and Industry News: In December 2025, the PPI decline narrowed, and the CPI increase expanded. There were market rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal supply guarantee and increased production capacity, and Indonesia planned to tighten its coal production quota in 2026 [18][19]. - Trend Intensity: No trend intensity is provided in the report. Logs - Price and Position Data: Log futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices showed various changes, with some prices remaining stable and others having minor fluctuations. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's Composite PMI in December 2025 was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].