原油：关注伊朗问题等上行风险，Brent或挑战68-70美元/桶

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention should be paid to upward risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent may challenge $68 - 70 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.65 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.77%, to $61.15 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 03 rose $1.60 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.51%, to $65.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 12.70 yuan per barrel, a 2.90% increase, at 450.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all had closed arbitrage windows, with reasons including unprofitable imports, insufficient cracking profits, high freight, supply surplus, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties had a closed arbitrage window with limited cross - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light had an open arbitrage window, indicating that Saudi light crude oil had an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light had open arbitrage windows due to可观 cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness; Azeri Light had a closed window due to environmental policies [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all had closed arbitrage windows because of low demand, high freight, and structural surplus [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all had closed arbitrage windows due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - From January 9th, the US API crude oil inventory was 527.8 million barrels, the gasoline inventory was 823.3 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory was 94.5 million barrels, with different expectations and previous values [5] - The US government applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade, and the US military and coast guard had seized five ships in recent weeks [5][6] - The US Energy Secretary said that if the Iranian regime collapses, the US is willing to cooperate with Iran in the oil field [7] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran, fearing disruptions to the oil market and impacts on domestic stability [7]