棕榈油：印尼B50存疑，POGO预计走缩豆油：美豆动能有限，关注原油外溢影响豆粕：或跟随美豆消化USDA报告，盘面偏弱

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated January 14, 2026, covering various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to narrow [2] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [2] - Soybean meal: Likely to follow US soybeans in digesting the USDA report, with a weakening market [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and the market may fluctuate [2] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2] - Sugar: Expected to operate weakly [2] - Cotton: To continue the adjustment trend [2] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, but sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2] - Hogs: There is negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply continues to be postponed [2] - Peanuts: To operate in a fluctuating manner [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,778 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,758 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton, and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons (20.28 million tons in 2025), and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons (3.05 million tons in 2025). India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than November. Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel policy implementation depends on crude oil and palm oil prices [5][6][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 4,329 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change, and night - session closing price was 4,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change; DCE soybean meal's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a - 1.12% change [10] - Macro and Industry News: On January 13, CBOT soybeans fell to a two - and - a - half - month low. The USDA lowered US soybean export forecasts by 60 million bushels (1.63 million tons) and raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Private exporters reported sales of 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico [10][12] Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2603 was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the day - session and 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change in the night - session; the closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase in the day - session and 2,278 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change in the night - session [14] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton, and containerized first - class grain port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton [15] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.84 US cents/pound with a - 0.05 change, the mainstream spot price was 5,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the futures main contract price was 5,253 yuan/ton with a - 32 change [17] - Macro and Industry News: As of December 31, the 2025/26 Indian sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year. India has signed 180,000 tons of export contracts this season. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons) [17] Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,760 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase in the day - session and 14,745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change in the night - session; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,765 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase in the day - session and 20,820 yuan/ton with a 0.26% change in the night - session [22] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading weakened. Some cotton merchants slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The overall price of pure cotton yarn was stable, but the actual transaction center moved down slightly. The downstream weaving mills' new orders were limited, and the grey fabric inventory was high [23] Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,960 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.53% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 2,990 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.32% change [28] Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton with a 100 increase, the Sichuan spot price was 13,000 yuan/ton with a - 100 change, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,260 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of hog 2603 was 11,795 yuan/ton with a 60 increase, the closing price of hog 2605 was 12,170 yuan/ton with a 5 increase, and the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,830 yuan/ton with a 5 increase [32] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton with a - 100 change. The closing price of PK603 was 7,862 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,874 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change [35] - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin, and the price of Xingcheng "Little Japan" peanuts was 4.1 - 4.37 yuan/jin [36]