Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. - The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. - The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. - The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. - In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol remains relatively high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. If there is no further production reduction in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 9.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.27% increase, at 445.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase, at 2461.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase, at 3066.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.85 million barrels to 91.47 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.00 million barrels to 93.56 million barrels, a 1.08% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.85 million barrels to 185.03 million barrels, a 1.57% increase [1]. - Strategy Views: The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. Methanol - Market Quotes: No specific market quotes provided in the given text. - Strategy Views: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. Urea - Market Quotes: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei remained unchanged, in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi remained unchanged, and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 44 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, at 1774 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy Views: The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. Rubber - Market Quotes: Rubber prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. The long - side of natural rubber RU believed that rubber production in Southeast Asian rubber forests might be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand was expected to improve. The short - side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, supply was increasing, and demand was in the seasonal off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire factories increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase from the previous week. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1900 (- 10) US dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1900 (- 10) US dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (+50) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11450 (+50) yuan [8][9][10]. - Strategy Views: The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC05 contract decreased by 52 yuan, at 4888 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4670 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 218 (+102) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (- 11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 730 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 674 (- 14) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, a 1.4% increase; the ethylene method was 79.6%, a 0.3% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and the social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [12]. - Strategy Views: The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Quotes: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 296 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 43.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.95 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, an increase of 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.90%, an increase of 0.11%. The PS operating rate was 58.90%, a decrease of 1.50%; the EPS operating rate was 46.72%, an increase of 3.07%; the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, a decrease of 0.10% [15]. - Strategy Views: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6766 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a weakening of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 39.54 tons, an increase of 2.47 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.93 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - Strategy Views: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 115 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 46.77 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 20.47 tons, an increase of 2.75 tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease from the previous week. The LL - PP spread was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton [20][21]. - Strategy Views: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX03 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 7282 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 2 US dollars, at 899 US dollars. Converted at the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 18 yuan (+42), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (- 12). The PX operating rate in China was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. In terms of facilities, there were few changes in China, a 82 - ton facility in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 339 US dollars (- 2), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 2) [23]. - Strategy Views: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA05 contract decreased by 2 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 40 yuan, at 5060 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan (- 11), and the 5 - 9 spread was 52 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of facilities, 75 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang, 12 - ton bottle chips of Yipu, and 10 - ton chemical fiber of Jindayu were under maintenance, and 50 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang were restarted. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 72%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 56%. In terms of inventory, on January 9, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.005 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 50 yuan to 295 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 15 yuan to 363 yuan [25]. - Strategy Views: In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG05 contract decreased by 65 yuan, at 3815 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 48 yuan, at 3686 yuan. The basis was - 147 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 yuan (- 14). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was
能源化工日报-20260114
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-14 01:40