棉花：延续调整态势20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is continuing its adjustment trend. The domestic cotton spot trading has weakened, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable but with a slight downward shift in the actual transaction focus. The开机率 of inland spinning enterprises has declined slightly, and downstream weaving mills have limited new orders and high inventory of grey cloth, with low acceptance of high - priced yarns. The upward momentum of ICE cotton futures has weakened due to the strengthening of the US dollar. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2605 closed at 14,760 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.92%, and its overnight price was 14745 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%. The trading volume was 710,353 lots, a decrease of 84,008 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 1,201,677 lots, an increase of 25,192 lots. - CY2603 closed at 20,765 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and its overnight price was 20820 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 10,121 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 16,032 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. - ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.93 cents/pound with a decline of 0.02%. [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,707, a decrease of 487. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, an increase of 10 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 43. [1] - Spot Price Data: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price in Shandong was 15,891 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.27%. - The price in Hebei was 15,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.30%. - The 3128B index was 15,783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.47%. - The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.94 cents/pound, an increase of 0.66% compared to the previous day. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.02%. [1] - Spread Data: - The CF3 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The trading of domestic cotton spot has weakened. The low - basis - difference spot has decreased, and some cotton merchants have slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with the overall basis center showing an upward trend. [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable, but the actual transaction center has shifted slightly downward, and the overall market trading atmosphere is still weak. Recently, inland spinning enterprises have continuously reduced their operating rates slightly to avoid inventory accumulation risks, while spinning enterprises in Xinjiang still maintain a relatively high operating rate. Downstream weaving mills have limited new orders, high inventory of grey cloth, and low acceptance of high - priced yarns, mainly purchasing small orders based on rigid demand. [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day yesterday, and the strengthening of the US dollar has weakened the upward momentum of ICE cotton futures. [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [4][5]