棕榈油：印尼B50存疑，POGO预计走缩：美豆动能有限，关注原油外溢影响

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy depends on the prices of crude oil and crude palm oil [4]. - The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [1]. - The POGO (Palm Oil - Gas Oil) spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Changes: Palm oil's day - trading closing price had a 0.62% increase, and night - trading had a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - trading closing price had a - 0.10% change, and night - trading had a - 0.03% change; rapeseed oil's day - trading closing price had a 0.41% increase, and night - trading had a - 0.48% change. The Malaysian palm oil main contract had a - 0.68% change during the day and a 0.52% change at night, and CBOT soybean oil main contract had a 1.81% increase [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil's trading volume increased by 46,791 lots to 558,865 lots, and open interest increased by 21,772 lots to 439,704 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 23,135 lots to 279,777 lots, and open interest increased by 20,236 lots to 709,684 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 6,625 lots to 242,364 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,586 lots to 251,744 lots [1]. - Spot Prices and Changes: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 122 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong is 614 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 983 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts is 239 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts is - 792 yuan/ton, palm oil 5 - 9 spread is 100 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread is 144 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread is 31 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be between 19.5 million and 19.8 million tons in 2026, down from 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons in 2026, down from 3.05 million tons in 2025 [2]. - India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than 632,341 tons in November; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than 142,953 tons in November; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than 370,661 tons in November; total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than 1.18 million tons in November [3][4]. - CBOT soybean futures closed down 1% on Tuesday, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low, due to the USDA's downward adjustment of US soybean export forecasts and upward adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecasts [5]. - Two more oil tankers were attacked near the CPC terminal on Tuesday, bringing the total number of attacked oil tankers to four [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6].