橡胶：宽幅震荡20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,140 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 380,256 lots, an increase of 30,564 lots. The position of the 05 contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 239 lots [2]. - Spread Data: The spot - futures main spread was - 275 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the mixed - futures main spread was - 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan. The RU05 - RU09 spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,170 US dollars/ton, unchanged; STR20 was 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,925 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1900 - 1910 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton (spot), with an increase of 20/15 US dollars; Thai mixed rubber was 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; African 10 was 1855 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15/5 US dollars [2]. - Trend Intensity: The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4]. - In terms of basis, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 925 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 75 yuan/ton [4]. - Recently, some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders have increased, the device capacity has been further released, and some enterprises have moderately increased production, which has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. The domestic sales performance within the cycle was average, and the enterprise's production increase was to reserve inventory [4].