宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-14-20260114
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-14 01:49

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall view of stronger operation. The core reason is the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, which has led to an increase in geopolitical risks and supported the crude oil price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Information Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be stronger [1]. Price Movement Reference - The reference view is that the crude oil price will run stronger [1][5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and the US may target Greenland and Mexico. Also, the US has threatened a new round of military strikes against Iran, intensifying the Middle East geopolitical risks. The strengthening of the crude oil risk premium has weakened the dominance of the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the stronger operation of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakish, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongish, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The strongish/weakish description only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4].