中辉能化观点-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: PX/PTA, methanol [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Ethylene glycol, natural gas [2][4] - Bearish Rebound: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, asphalt [1][4] - Bearish Consolidation: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - Sideways Consolidation: Urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Short - term geopolitical disturbances lead to a rebound in oil prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1][7][9] - LPG: It rebounds following the cost - end oil price in the short - term, but in the medium - to - long - term, the price is expected to decline due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil [1][13][14] - L: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market is expected to repair profits [1][18] - PP: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase, and the cost end strengthens. The supply - demand is weak, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to PDH device dynamics [1][22] - PVC: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens, and there is an expectation of future maintenance [1][25] - PX/PTA: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05 [2][27][28] - Ethylene Glycol: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2][30][31] - Methanol: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05 [2][34][36] - Urea: The supply - side pressure increases. Although there are winter storage and spring fertilizer use expectations, be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05 [2][38][40] - Natural Gas: The supply side is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Although there is support in the demand season, the upward space is limited [4][44] - Asphalt: The geopolitical situation in South America leads to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The price center moves up, but there is still room for compression in the medium - to - long - term [4][48][49] - Glass: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound space. The price fluctuates within a range [4][53] - Soda Ash: The demand for heavy soda weakens, and the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term. The price fluctuates at the bottom [4][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: On January 12, international oil prices rose. WTI increased by 2.35%, Brent by 2.18%, and SC by 1.87% [5][6] - Basic Logic: Short - term: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a rebound in oil prices. Core: In the off - season, crude oil supply exceeds demand, and global and US inventories are increasing [7][8] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ production expansion puts pressure on prices. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 445] [9] LPG - Market Review: On January 12, the PG main contract closed at 4236 yuan/ton, up 0.33% month - on - month [12] - Basic Logic: Short - term: It rebounds following the oil price. Long - term: The oil price is under pressure, and the supply - demand is relatively stable. The inventory decreases [13] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [14] L - Market Review: L05 closed at 6737 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [16] - Basic Logic: The price of naphtha rises, strengthening cost support. The parking ratio increases, and production is expected to decline. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [18] - Strategy Recommendation: The market is expected to continue to repair profits. Pay attention to the range of L [6600 - 6750] [18] PP - Market Review: PP05 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.7% month - on - month [20] - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase the cost end. The supply - demand is weak in January, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics. Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6600] [22] PVC - Market Review: V05 closed at 4905 yuan/ton, down 1.3% month - on - month [23] - Basic Logic: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens [25] - Strategy Recommendation: Treat it with a positive spread between months. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4950] [25] PX/PTA - Market Review: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past three months [26][27] - Basic Logic: Valuation: The processing fee improves. Supply: The overall maintenance intensity is high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [27] - Strategy Recommendation: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5080 - 5170] [28] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG05 closed at 3639 yuan/ton, at a low - level position in the past six months [29] - Basic Logic: Valuation: It is relatively low. Supply: Domestic production capacity utilization increases, and the overseas maintenance is expected to be high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [31] Methanol - Market Review: The main contract of methanol reduces positions and rises, and the port basis weakens [34] - Basic Logic: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: Domestic and overseas production capacity utilization increases, and there is supply pressure in January. Demand: It improves slightly. Cost: The support is weakly stable [34] - Strategy Recommendation: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2219 - 2269] [36] Urea - Market Review: UR05 closed at 1777 yuan/ton, at a high - level position this year [37][39] - Basic Logic: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: The overall production capacity utilization increases, and the supply pressure exists. Demand: It weakens, and winter storage has limited positive effects. Inventory: It is at a relatively high level [38][39] - Strategy Recommendation: Winter storage has limited positive effects, and there is an export window and spring fertilizer use expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [40] Natural Gas - Market Review: On January 9, the NG main contract closed at 3.169 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 6.99% month - on - month [43] - Basic Logic: The supply is abundant, and the recent demand is stable. The price is under pressure [44] - Strategy Recommendation: In winter, there is demand support, but the supply is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.131 - 3.576] [44] Asphalt - Market Review: On January 11, the BU main contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [47] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical tensions in South America lead to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The cost profit decreases, the supply decreases, and the demand increases slightly. The inventory increases [48] - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation returns to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to risks due to the uncertainty of raw material supply. Pay attention to the range of BU [3050 - 3150] [49] Glass - Market Review: FG05 closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.1% month - on - month [51] - Basic Logic: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound. The supply - demand is weak, and the profit of three processes turns negative [53] - Strategy Recommendation: The price fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [53] Soda Ash - Market Review: SA05 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [55] - Basic Logic: The demand for heavy soda weakens, the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory decreases slightly [57] - Strategy Recommendation: The price fluctuates at the bottom. Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [57]