有色金属日报 2026-1-14-20260114
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-14 01:52
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness and LME spot strength, with prices expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum market has positive drivers from overseas low - inventory and strong spot supply - demand, and is expected to remain relatively strong [4][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is supported by cost and supply disturbances, and is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, with increased short - term volatility [10][12]. - The zinc price is also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a significant price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference, and it's recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - The nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and short - term waiting is recommended [16]. - The lithium carbonate price has a high risk of correction, and it's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [18][19]. - For alumina, it's recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [21][22]. - The stainless steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The LME copper 3M fell slightly by 0.12% to $13,156 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,540 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 4,325 tons to 141,550 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 122,000 tons [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Despite high copper prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure in China, the tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 105,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: The LME aluminum closed slightly up 0.16% at $3,196 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,780 yuan per ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 21,000 to 771,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 101,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 494,000 tons [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With weak US inflation data, the market sentiment is slightly positive. Although there is inventory accumulation pressure in China, overseas factors and domestic downstream start - up and export expectations are positive for aluminum prices. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,400 - 25,000 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,160 - $3,230 per ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the main casting aluminum alloy contract AD2603 fell 0.75% to 23,165 yuan per ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,600 lots, with a trading volume of 31,300 lots. Warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,800 tons. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 200 to 43,900 tons [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supported by cost and supply disturbances, and with average demand, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. Lead - Market Information: The SHFE lead index fell 0.66% to 17,348 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $2,054 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan per ton. SHFE lead futures inventory was 21,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 221,500 tons [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. The current price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and short - term volatility will increase [11][12]. Zinc - Market Information: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.45% to 24,275 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose $21 to $3,202.5 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,330 yuan per ton. SHFE zinc futures inventory was 33,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. It has a large potential for price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. Tin - Market Information: The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.64% to 379,330 yuan per ton. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, but the willingness to start work in Yunnan is insufficient, and Jiangxi's production is low. The SMM tin ingot social inventory decreased by 1,042 tons to 7,478 tons last week [14][15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [15]. Nickel - Market Information: The SHFE nickel main contract fell 3.99% to 138,450 yuan per ton. The spot premium of various brands was strong. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price was also stable [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: There is still a large surplus pressure on nickel. The increase in inventory restricts price increases, but domestic liquidity support exists. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index rose 6.78% to 163,427 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed up 7% at 166,980 yuan [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, but there is a high risk of correction. It's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 161,600 - 174,000 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index fell 2.86% to 2,772 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan to 2,590 yuan per ton, at a discount to the main contract. Overseas FOB price was stable at $308 per ton, with an import loss of 84 yuan per ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,400 to 166,600 tons [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and there are difficulties in continuous rebound. It's recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13,790 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. Spot prices in some markets increased slightly. Raw material prices rose, and social inventory decreased by 2.97% to 948,300 tons [24][25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. With stable cost support, low supply, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [25].