中信期货晨报：贵金属波动率仍高，股指商品大部回调-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a cooling trend, and the Fed's independence is under concern. Key events to watch include the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, US CPI data, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and Q4 GDP data [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve moderately, with a focus on investment. The 12 - month PMI and price data have shown mild improvements. The "price commitment" for Chinese EV exports to the EU is a positive for new - energy vehicle manufacturers [8]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. Silver should be treated as a standard allocation in the short - term and overweighted when volatility stabilizes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index and Bond Market - Stock Index Futures: Double - factor boost to the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting for incremental funds. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9]. - Stock Index Options: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. Short - term outlook is oscillatory [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Long - end sentiment remains weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on the implementation of monetary policy [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: With smooth expectations of liquidity easing and resurgent geopolitical conflicts, short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical trends [9]. - Silver: Tight spot supply structure, sensitive to liquidity and driven by the pro - cyclical trend. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical trends [9]. 3.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Near - term support from pre - Spring Festival shipments, long - term focus on the risk of shipping line resumptions. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on shipping line resumption plans, long - term contract freight rates, and pre - Spring Festival cargo volume [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: Inventory is starting to accumulate, and the price has fallen after a rise. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [9]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is strong, but inventory pressure is building. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [9]. - Coke: Rigid demand has increased significantly, but the fifth price increase has failed. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on steel production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Supply - demand structure has improved, and prices have rebounded. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market supply and demand are both weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Cost bottom has risen, but de - stocking pressure remains. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - Glass: Production has decreased, and demand is weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Supply has increased significantly, and supply exceeds demand. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and the price is oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, Fed policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and prices are under pressure. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on ore production resumption, electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends [9]. - Aluminum: Mozal aluminum plant faces shutdown, and the price is oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the price rebound is limited. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on macro - risk and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: Downstream purchasing willingness has improved, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce nickel ore RKAB, and the price has rebounded. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply [9]. - Stainless Steel: Driven by the nickel price rebound, the stainless - steel price has recovered. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on Indonesian policy risks and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and the price is oscillating upward. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price has recovered. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and the price is highly volatile. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policy [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: Inventory de - stocking has slowed down, and the price is under pressure. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to the Iranian risk. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on OPEC+ production policy and geopolitical situation [11]. - LPG: The strong - reality situation is weakening. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range. Short - term outlook is downward, depending on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Pressured by Venezuelan heavy oil, the fuel oil futures price has fallen. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating upward. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: Inventory pressure is significant, and MTO demand is weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory downward, depending on macro - energy, Middle - East situation, and overseas production shutdown [11]. - Urea: Actual transactions have slowed down. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on coal prices, downstream replenishment, and enterprise inventory [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas arrivals are concentrated, and inventory capacity is tight. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on coal and oil prices and port inventory [11]. - PX: Polyester demand weakness puts pressure on upstream raw materials. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on crude oil price fluctuations, macro - changes, and polyester production cuts [11]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts are concentrated, and basis and processing fees are under pressure. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on crude oil price fluctuations, macro - changes, and polyester load [11]. - Short - Fiber: Fluctuations have narrowed, and sales are stable. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and demand around the Spring Festival [11]. - Bottle Chip: More plant overhauls in January, and profit support has increased. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on bottle - chip enterprise production cut targets and shipping costs [11]. - Propylene: Some downstream industries have resumed production. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: Commodity sentiment is positive, and overhauls have decreased slightly. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - Plastic: Macro - factors boost, but downstream transactions have decreased. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - Styrene: Driven by exports and positive commodity sentiment, the price is oscillating upward. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices, macro - policy, and plant operations [11]. - PVC: Supported by short - term "export rush". Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: Low - valued and with weak expectations, the price is running weakly. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. 3.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The USDA report is relatively bearish. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand [11]. - Protein Meal: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on customs policies, South American weather, macro - situation, and trade wars [11]. - Corn/Starch: The price is oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Pig: Supply and demand are both increasing. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: Follows the macro - trading logic. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: The cotton price is in an oscillatory adjustment period. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on production and demand [11]. - Sugar: The sugar price is oscillating horizontally, and supply pressure is increasing. Short - term outlook is oscillatory downward, depending on imports and Northern Hemisphere production [11].