铜：LME注销仓单大增，支撑价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports copper prices [1] - By 2040, global copper demand will significantly increase, driven by the AI and defense sectors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290, with a daily decline of 1.45%, and the night - session closing price was 103,540, with a night - session increase of 1.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 13,157, with a daily decline of 0.12% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the open interest was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 32,396, a decrease of 3,345 from the previous day, and the open interest was 324,000, a decrease of 543 from the previous day [1] - Futures Inventories: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325 from the previous day. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% from the previous day [1] - Spreads: There were changes in various spreads such as LME copper spreads, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: In the US, the core CPI in December was only 2.6% year - on - year, remaining at a four - year low. The interest rate market still bets that the next interest rate cut will be in June this year. On January 13, US President Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials [1] - Industry News: Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 133.2 million tons, slightly higher than in 2024. In November, its copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a record - high copper premium of $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026 [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]