碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注市场情绪变化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will experience a moderately strong and fluctuating trend, and investors should pay attention to market sentiment changes [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 162,800 yuan, with a significant difference compared to previous periods; the trading volume was 67 lots, showing a large decline; the open interest was 1,755 lots, also decreasing. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 166,980 yuan, the trading volume was 608,177 lots, and the open interest was 460,281 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts and Basis: The warehouse receipt volume was 26,898 lots. The basis between the spot and 2601 contract was -3,300 yuan, and between the spot and 2605 contract was -7,480 yuan [1] - Raw Materials and Lithium Salts: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,090 yuan, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,950 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan [1] - Downstream Products: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,665 yuan, and for ternary materials such as 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), it was 190,950 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Price Changes: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 160,975 yuan/ton, up 8,512 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, also up 7,500 yuan/ton [2] - Chilean Exports: In December 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 18,341 tons, up 2.10% month - on - month but down 8.68% year - on - year. Exports to China were 11,705 tons, down 20.34% month - on - month and 12.41% year - on - year; exports to South Korea were 5,572 tons, up 146.66% month - on - month and 109.87% year - on - year; exports to Japan were 596 tons, up 47.89% month - on - month but down 80.13% year - on - year. Chile's total lithium sulfate exports to China in December 2025 were 4,838 tons, down 52.25% month - on - month and 51.07% year - on - year [2][3] - Exchange Policy: Starting from the trading session on January 15, 2026, the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts LC2602 - LC2612 will be adjusted to 0.032% of the trading amount, and the same for intraday closing positions. Non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum of 400 lots of daily opening positions for contracts LC2606 - LC2612 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]