煤焦：现货跟涨，盘面高位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The central bank's positive statement boosts market sentiment. After the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The downstream's pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials supports the upstream's confidence in price support. The short - term disk price fluctuates sharply, so cautious operation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of nearly 4%, continuing high volatility. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere of coking coal has been active recently, the order volume at the pithead has rebounded, the continuous rate of auction failures has decreased, coal prices in many places have rebounded from low levels, and the quotation of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port has increased by 115 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise coke prices, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented from January 15th [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 1.899 million tons and 734,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at mines has increased, while the clean coal inventory has decreased because downstream coke - steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 164,600 tons, 37,400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [3]. - Demand Side: In the past two weeks, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded, and the daily average hot - metal output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons compared with the previous week and 51,300 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small - scale upward trend in the short term. Later, the raw - material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate, supporting the upstream's confidence in price support [3].