华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For building materials, it is expected to operate in a range-bound consolidation [4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - related news [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel mills will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lack of highlights. Winter storage is sluggish and provides weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the overall inflation rate in the US in December remained unchanged, and the core indicator annual rate was lower than expected. Traders increased bets on "earlier Fed rate cuts" [3] - High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - The supply shortage of domestic bauxite has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories have increased, the spot price of alumina is under pressure, and the intended purchase price of domestic bauxite by alumina plants is falling [4] - The intended transaction price of imported bauxite has decreased, the market is quiet, and some alumina plants are cautious in their procurement plans [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, but the overall situation is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies" [4] - High aluminum prices have generally suppressed the entire industrial chain. Downstream enterprises delay purchases and digest inventories, resulting in insufficient new orders [4] - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [4] - Macro performance is strong. The logic of the monetary easing cycle driven by the Fed's rate - cut expectation remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies boost market risk appetite and demand expectations, but beware of high - price risks [5]