招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose and then fell. London gold exceeded $4,600 per ounce, and London silver exceeded $89 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: In December, the US core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow, while some inventories changed [1]. - Trading Strategies: Gold prices are rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. Silver has strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.81% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24,375 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [2]. - Trading Strategies: Although the terminal consumption of the electrolytic aluminum market is under pressure, the expectation of loose macro - policies and geopolitical risks provide strong support for aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 3.00% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,780 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategies: Alumina supply is gradually recovering, inventory is accumulating, and the price of bauxite is falling. The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 13, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,235 yuan per ton and 17,310 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - Fundamentals: The zinc market is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The lead market shows weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [2][3]. - Trading Strategies: For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see. For lead, it can be traded within a range or treated with a short - bias [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Tuesday, the main 05 contract closed at 8,635 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [3]. - Trading Strategies: The fundamental support is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 166,980 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. Supply increased in December but is expected to decrease in January. Demand for some battery materials is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategies: Due to inflation concerns on the supply side and battery export expectations on the demand side, prices are expected to be supported, and it is easy for prices to rise and difficult to fall [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 49,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 990 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Market regulatory authorities interviewed photovoltaic associations and enterprises, causing market pessimism. Supply decreased slightly, and demand for some downstream products declined [3]. - Trading Strategies: There are still rumors of joint production cuts on the supply side, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,169 yuan per ton, a rise of 14 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is weak with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and steel mills are in a state of continuous loss [4]. - Trading Strategies: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,140 - 3,190 yuan per ton [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 824 yuan per ton, a rise of 8 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. Steel mill profits are poor, and port inventory has a certain structural shortage. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure [4]. - Trading Strategies: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 810 - 840 yuan per ton [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan per ton, a fall of 11.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and coking coal supply - demand is weak. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - Trading Strategies: Mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,180 - 1,220 yuan per ton [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell, continuing to digest the USDA bearish report [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply is loose in the near - term, and the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. US soybean crushing increased slightly, while exports decreased [5]. - Trading Strategies: US soybeans are weak and in the process of finding a bottom. Domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by South American supply expectations, and near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - reserve sales and customs clearance [5]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices rose slightly [5]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has slowed down compared to last year, and farmers are reluctant to sell. Downstream inventory has increased, and procurement enthusiasm will decline [5]. - Trading Strategies: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market fell due to the uncertainty of B50 [6]. - Fundamentals: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in December but increased year - on - year. Exports increased. The near - term inventory increased [6]. - Trading Strategies: Edible oils are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and trade in the weak seasonal production cut cycle in the long - term. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,274 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.27% [6]. - Fundamentals: International raw sugar prices fell due to Indian production pressure. Domestic sales progress is slow, and SR05 is under pressure from both imported and domestic sugar [6]. - Trading Strategies: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, ICE US cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and international crude oil prices rose significantly [6]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton production forecast decreased in 25/26. Domestic cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the upward trend is still valid [6]. - Trading Strategies: Temporarily wait and see. The price reference range is 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable [6][7]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. Festival stocking drove demand, but supply is sufficient [6][7]. - Trading Strategies: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices rose slightly [6][7]. - Fundamentals: The January pig slaughter volume is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. Demand is stable in the short - term and will increase at the end of the month [6][7]. - Trading Strategies: Supply is decreasing, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate stronger [6][7]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 9,779 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.55% [6]. - Fundamentals: This year's apple production is low, with poor quality. Cold - storage apple sales are slow, and there is competition from other fruits. The post - holiday price risk depends on pre - holiday sales [6]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis strengthened, and the market transaction was okay [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is rising but slowing down. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, while other sectors' demand is stable [8]. - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. PVC - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4,888 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.7% [8]. - Fundamentals: Affected by the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, supply is at a high level, demand is seasonally weakening, and inventory is at a high level [8]. - Trading Strategies: Supply - demand is weak, and prices are low. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Glass - Market Performance: fg05 closed at 1,097 yuan per ton, a fall of 3% [8]. - Fundamentals: Glass production cuts increased, sales improved, supply decreased, and inventory decreased from a high level. Downstream demand is weak, and production is at a loss [8]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [8]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis was stable, and the market transaction was average [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is rising, and the export window is open. Downstream start - up rates increased due to national subsidy policies [8]. - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, it is recommended to go short at high prices [8][9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose for five consecutive days due to geopolitical risks [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is still large, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is above the five - year average [9]. - Trading Strategies: It is not recommended to chase high prices. Wait for opportunities to go short or buy out - of - the - money put options [9]. Styrene (EB) - Market Performance: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The market trading atmosphere was average [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are at normal - to - high levels. Demand is in the off - season, and the start - up rate decreased [9]. - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, it is recommended to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse spreads and long on styrene profits [9]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1,211 yuan per ton, a fall of 1.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: Soda ash supply is recovering, demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [9]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to do reverse spreads or go long on glass and short on soda ash [9].