西南期货早间评论-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of supply - demand relationships, macro - economic factors, and technical indicators [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bonds - Treasury Bonds: The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.28%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 342.4 billion yuan. Due to the stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and the relatively low treasury bond yields, it is expected that treasury bond futures will face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. 3.2 Stocks - Stock Index Futures: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.44%, 0.15%, 1.20%, and 1.76% respectively. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to push the volatility center of the stock index up gradually. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [7][8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Precious Metals: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose by 0.09% and the silver main contract rose by 0.28%. The US CPI data was in line with expectations. Given the complex global trade and financial environment and central banks' gold - buying behavior, the allocation and hedging value of gold is favorable. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [10]. 3.4 Industrial Products - Steel Products: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year but with a fast consumption speed. It is expected that the rebar price will continue its weak oscillation, and the hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Technically, the rebound momentum of steel futures is insufficient. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage their positions carefully [12]. - Iron Ore: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated at a high level. The supply of iron ore may strengthen, with the continuous resumption of blast furnaces and the increase in port inventory. Technically, the iron ore futures have broken through the previous high and may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage their positions carefully [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The first - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke is expected to start. The cost support for coke has strengthened, and the demand for coke has increased due to the continuous resumption of blast furnaces. Technically, the futures form of coke and coking coal has strengthened. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage their positions carefully [16][17]. - Ferroalloys: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell by 0.37% and the silicon - iron main contract fell by 0.11%. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys has decreased since the fourth quarter of 2025, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. It is recommended to consider long positions in the low - level range after the price decline [19]. - Crude Oil: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation. The US and oil companies are discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has been met with a cold response. The US - Iran conflict has intensified. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to continue to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main crude oil contract [20][22]. - Fuel Oil: The previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The decrease in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the increase in the cost of crude oil are expected to drive the price of fuel oil up. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. - Polyolefins: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao increased. After the New Year's Day, the demand in traditional industries such as plastic weaving and PP pipes has decreased, while the demand in some fields such as new energy vehicles and medical protection has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on polyolefins [27]. - Synthetic Rubber: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.29%. The market rose last week, supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to oscillate strongly [29][30]. - Natural Rubber: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract closed flat, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell by 0.19%. It is expected that the natural rubber market will oscillate widely in the short term. The supply is decreasing as the domestic production area enters the end of the rubber - tapping season, while the demand from the tire industry is weak, and the inventory is increasing [32]. - PVC: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose by 1.73%. Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation of the futures price. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation may improve due to capacity clearance and export growth. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [34]. - Urea: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell by 0.11%. In the short term, the urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the industrial and agricultural sectors shows different trends. The inventory is lower than expected [38]. - PX: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell by 0.49%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX operating rate is maintained. The increase in crude oil prices provides support. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the range and pay attention to the risks of external crude oil fluctuations [40][41]. - PTA: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell by 0.31%. The supply and demand situation has not changed much, and the processing fee has returned to a neutral level. The inventory is still at a low level. The increase in crude oil prices may provide support. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is recommended to operate cautiously on dips and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell by 1.4%. The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to changes in port inventory and supply [44][45]. - Short - Fiber: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell by 0.37%. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, which may provide some support. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - Bottle - Chip: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose by 0.16%. The processing fee has decreased. The supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate has increased. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [47][48]. - Soda Ash: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30%. The fundamental situation is still loose, with an increase in production and inventory. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate in the range in the short term [49]. - Glass: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%. The fundamental situation is still loose, and the downstream procurement is rational. The industry profit is low, and the downward space is limited [50][51]. - Caustic Soda: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of caustic soda closed at 2131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. It is expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but there may be price - driving factors from downstream capacity optimization or supply - side production cuts. It is recommended to operate in the range and control positions [52]. - Paper Pulp: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of paper pulp closed at 5492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The price has risen under the influence of macro - sentiment, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved. The inventory is at a relatively high level, which suppresses the market trend. It is expected to oscillate in the range [53][54]. - Lithium Carbonate: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose by 7.44%. The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. - Copper: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%. The US economic data shows a mixed situation, and there are supply - side disturbances in the copper market. The high price suppresses short - term consumption, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [56][57]. - Aluminum: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24780 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%. The alumina surplus situation remains unchanged, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to increase significantly. The high price suppresses demand, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to adjust at a high level [59]. - Zinc: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the output of refined zinc has decreased. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate after the upward shift of the operating center [61]. - Lead: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17435 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11%. The production of primary lead has decreased, and the supply of secondary lead is scarce. The demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a very low level. It is expected to oscillate in the range [63]. - Tin: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose by 4.63%. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to run strongly [65][66]. - Nickel: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell by 0.33%. The Indonesian policy risk has increased, and the cost of nickel production is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies [67]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract fell by 0.90%, and the soybean - oil main contract rose by 0.18%. The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed, and the US soybean production is expected to increase while exports are expected to decrease. The domestic soybean import has slowed down, and the oil - mill crushing is in a loss. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and the opportunity to exit long positions for soybean oil after the price rises [68][70]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil has turned from rising to falling, affected by the uncertainty of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy. The export data is optimistic, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to consider the opportunity of going long after the price correction [71][72]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed price has increased, following the rise of CBOT soybean - oil futures. The global and Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed - oil inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to consider the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and soybean - rapeseed oil [73][74]. - Cotton: The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton rose and then fell slightly. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable for the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory increase is lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after the price correction [75][77]. - Sugar: The previous trading day, Zheng sugar oscillated weakly. The domestic sugar production is increasing, and the import volume is expected to be high in January. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase. The upward space of the sugar price may be limited in the medium - long term [79][80]. - Apple: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to run strongly in the medium - long term [82][85]. - Pig: The previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase in the middle of the month, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in market funds [87][88]. - Egg: The previous trading day, the main contract of eggs fell by 1.32%. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to consider the positive - spread strategy [90][91]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose by 0.35%, and the corn - starch main contract rose by 0.31%. The US corn production is expected to increase, and the domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The corn - starch demand has improved slightly, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the release of supply pressure [92][93]. - Log: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of logs closed at 774.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06%. The supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The basis oscillates at a low level, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [94].