国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price [2][7]. - Zinc: Volatility at high levels has increased [2][10]. - Lead: A decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [2][17]. - Aluminum: Operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: Trading within a range [2][25]. - Palladium: Trading in a narrow range [2][25]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations [2][29]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel has raised the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Gold - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a 0.14% increase. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4594.40 with a - 0.31% decrease [4]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 197,421, a decrease of 40,906 from the previous day, and the position was 103,633, a decrease of 12,817 [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 98,283 kg, an increase of 630 kg from the previous day [4]. - News: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The University of Michigan's January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have ordered a plan to "invade" Greenland [4][6]. Silver - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a 0.39% increase, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a 4.14% increase [4]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,532, a decrease of 29,618 from the previous day, and the position was 72,853, a decrease of 7,320 [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 630,066 kg, a decrease of 19577 kg from the previous day [4]. Copper - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290 with a - 1.45% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 103540 with a 1.22% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,157 with a - 0.12% decrease [7]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the position was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 [7]. - Inventory and Cancelled Warrants: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day. The LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% [7]. - News: US December core CPI was only 2.6% year - on - year, at a four - year low. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, driven by the AI and defense sectors [7][9]. Zinc - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24280 with a 0.43% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3213.5 with a 2.05% increase [10]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 188273, an increase of 90333 from the previous day, and the position was 111306, an increase of 9828 [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 33613 tons, a decrease of 1728 tons from the previous day, and the LME Zinc inventory was 106900 tons, an increase of 100 tons [10]. - News: US core inflation slowed down in December, and the market has low expectations for a rate cut this month [10][11]. Lead - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17360 with a - 0.66% decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2053 with a 0.32% increase [14]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 41289, an increase of 5747 from the previous day, and the position was 64233, an increase of 698 [14]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 21013 tons, an increase of 4524 tons from the previous day, and the LME Lead inventory was 218925 tons, a decrease of 2525 tons [14]. - News: US December core CPI was at a four - year low, and Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials [14][15]. Tin - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 379,330 with a 0.64% increase, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,145 with a 1.96% increase [18]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 470,223, an increase of 187,240 from the previous day, and the position was 42,853, a decrease of 7,782 [18]. - Inventory and Cancelled Warrants: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,245, a decrease of 88 from the previous day, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, an increase of 25. The cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [18]. - News: Global central banks are drafting a statement to support Fed Chairman Powell. Baichuan Intelligence plans to launch an IPO in 2027 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24375, a decrease of 275 from the previous day, and the LME Aluminum 3M closed at 299 [21]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 825553, an increase of 170542 from the previous day, and the position was 370981, a decrease of 8100 [21]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 14.90 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.40 million tons [21]. - Alumina - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2780, a decrease of 144 from the previous day [21]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 964869, an increase of 97851 from the previous day, and the position was 553364, an increase of 123459 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23165, a decrease of 175 from the previous day [21]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 27925, an increase of 10659 from the previous day, and the position was 22099, an increase of 109 [21]. - News: After Powell was sued, the New York Fed President warned against undermining the central bank's independence. CME changed the margin setting method for precious metals contracts [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum - Price: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 605.05 with a - 2.85% decrease [25]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 32,647 kg, a decrease of 7,907 from the previous day, and the position was 38.440 kg, a decrease of 861 [25]. - Inventory: The NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345 ounces, a decrease of 409 from the previous day [25]. - Palladium - Price: The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 483.25 with a - 4.33% decrease [25]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 22,262 kg, a decrease of 1,916 from the previous day, and the position was 15.204 kg, a decrease of 59 [25]. - Inventory: The NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908 ounces, a decrease of 398 from the previous day [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,450, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous day [30]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,277,690, an increase of 194,488 from the previous day [30]. - Industry Chain: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 981, an increase of 9 from the previous day [30]. - Stainless Steel - Price: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,790, a decrease of 65 from the previous day [30]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 347,554, a decrease of 9,430 from the previous day [30]. - News: The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities [30][31].