格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upward due to factors such as international crude oil price increases, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and the inflow of hot money. Palm oil is expected to continue to strengthen, but attention should be paid to the postponed implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy. Vegetable oil long positions should be held. [1][2] - Against the backdrop of abundant global soybean supply, double - meal trading should adopt an intraday approach, and a mid - line bottom - oscillation mindset should be maintained. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 13, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices rose, and the biodiesel concept resurfaced. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. Among them, the closing price of the main soybean oil contract Y2605 was 7986 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day; the closing price of the main palm oil contract P2605 was 8778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 was 9017 yuan/ton, up 0.41% day - on - day. [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. [1] - Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending regulation depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil. It is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with a monthly volume of 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil. [1] - In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1.3165 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3.05 million tons, within the market's expected range. [1] - From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons. [1] - Indonesia's total biodiesel allocation in 2026 is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. [1] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76%. [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the tense situation between the US and Iran has led to supply concerns and geopolitical conflicts, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise, which has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, the fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed. During the Spring Festival stocking period, soybean oil inventory has decreased, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The full sale of domestic old soybean auctions indicates sufficient future supply, while the customs' tightened soybean clearance policy continues. For palm oil, the expected negative overseas reports have been released, and the market is more influenced by the rise in international crude oil prices and the biodiesel concept. For rapeseed oil, the strong prices of soybean and palm oil have driven up its price. [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [2] - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference. [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 13, the US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report was bearish, causing US soybeans to close lower and dragging down the domestic double - meal market to oscillate weakly. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract M2605 was 2761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% day - on - day. [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3630 - 3790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton. [2] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, rising crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Global soybean production is expected to reach 425.7 million tons. [2][3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons. [3] - As of January 9, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year. [3] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth of sown soybeans was in good condition. [3] - Brazil's soybean exports in December were 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase compared to the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 1.12 billion tons. [3] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons compared to the previous week. [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, under the pressure of abundant global soybean supply, US soybeans are under pressure and testing the support at 1000 US dollars. Domestically, the spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking intention has increased, driving up the price of finished feed. The USDA report's simultaneous increase in US soybean inventory and Brazilian production, along with the year - on - year increase in global rapeseed and rapeseed meal production, jointly suppress the market. [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Mid - line trading: Maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset and conduct intraday trading. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [4] - Arbitrage trading: There are currently no arbitrage strategies. [4]