宝城期货国债期货早报（2026年1月14日）-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. With the decline of Treasury bond spot prices and the central bank's net injection in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the strong resilience of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of a short - term interest rate cut, so the upward momentum is also insufficient. Overall, short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak | Oscillation and consolidation | Low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectation [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS - Intraday View: Weak - Medium - term View: Oscillation - Reference View: Oscillation and consolidation - Core Logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The upward and downward momentum is limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand, a loose monetary and credit environment is needed, so there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. The decline of spot prices and the central bank's net injection reduce the downward momentum, while the strong December macro - economic data reduces the short - term urgency of a rate cut, limiting the upward momentum. Short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]