格林期货早盘提示：棉花-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have stabilized, and the USDA monthly report supports the operation of US cotton futures prices. The main 03 contract settled at 64.88 cents, up 0.05%. There is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton. The decline in cotton planting area and the expectation of tight balance continue to dominate the market trend. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton stimulates the import of foreign cotton and yarn to ease the supply shortage, but the overall bullish thinking remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.88, down 3 points; 5 - month at 66.41, down 3 points; 7 - month at 67.86, unchanged; trading volume was about 58,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 710,353, and the open interest was 1,201,677. The settlement prices were 14,850 for January, 14,765 for May, and 14,920 for September [2] Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2] - As of January 10, the net signed export of Egyptian cotton was 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). The new contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average transaction price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2] - Recently, the weather in Pakistan's cotton - growing areas has been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1085,000 - 1,124,000 tons. The transaction price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 - 8,200 rupees/40 kilograms depending on quality [2] - According to the USDA's January US cotton supply - demand forecast report, in 2025/26, the US cotton planting area is 5.6345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. The harvest area increased to 4.7376 million mu, an increase of 264,700 mu. The yield per unit area is expected to be 64 kg/mu, a decrease of 5.5 kg/mu. The production is expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The consumption is expected to be 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9%. The export volume is expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2] Trading Strategy - Build long positions below 14,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and take profit at 15,000 yuan/ton [2]