国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report presents investment analyses and outlooks for various energy - chemical futures on January 14, 2026. It includes evaluations of price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies for different commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Cost - supported, expected to be unilaterally strong. Suggest long PX short PTA, long SC short PX hedging. Although supply is loose and downstream PTA polyester may reduce production, the rising oil price supports the cost. [6][9] - PTA: Cost - supported, suggest long SC short PTA. High processing fees, pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. Supply growth is limited, and the impact of polyester production reduction needs to be observed. [9] - MEG: Expected to rebound strongly in the short - term, suggest closing short positions. Focus on the implementation of the spring inspection of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants. [10] Rubber - Expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the base - difference and some price spreads changed. The demand of the semi - steel tire industry improved slightly. [11][12][13] Synthetic Rubber - Expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of butadiene is in a neutral situation, and synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost. [15][16][17] LLDPE - The production of standard products remains low, and the spot price is rising. The base - difference turns positive. The raw - material price is stable, and the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term needs attention. [18][19] PP - The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost of PP is strongly supported. The end - of - year demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH devices. [21][22] Caustic Soda - Expected to fluctuate weakly. High production and inventory, weak demand and large supply pressure, facing the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. [24][25][26] Pulp - Expected to fluctuate. The spot price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the market, and the hardwood pulp price is firm. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. [29][31][32] Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the trading atmosphere is average. [34][35] Methanol - Expected to have support during fluctuations. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term. The upper and lower valuation levels are clear. [38][40][41] Urea - Expected to fluctuate. The inventory is basically stable. In the short - term, the price may correct, and in the medium - term, it is still strong. [42][44][45] Styrene - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. The medium - term driving force is weak. [47][48][49] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The demand support is weakening, and the overall supply - demand is not good. [51][53] LPG and Propylene - LPG: Supply is tight in the short - term, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. [56] - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. [57] PVC - Expected to fluctuate weakly. High production and inventory, weak demand, and the large - scale production - reduction expectation may be after the 03 contract. [65][66] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Driven by geopolitics, there is still support at the bottom. [68] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Mainly follows the rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rebound. [68] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Expected to operate weakly. The "rush for exports" is temporarily false, and the price - reduction inflection point is clear. Different contracts have different investment strategies. [70][80][84] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - Fiber: Expected to fluctuate strongly, suggest holding long TA short PF. [86] - Bottle - Chip: Expected to fluctuate strongly, suggest holding the positive spread of the monthly difference. [86] Offset - Printing Paper - Suggest short - selling at high prices. The market price is stable, and the downstream demand is limited. [89][90][92] Pure Benzene - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has risen slightly. [94][95][96]