成本端仍有提振，关注检修兑现进程

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side still has a boost, and attention should be paid to the implementation process of maintenance. The market sentiment has improved, driving the prices of PE and PP to continue to rebound, but the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of both is limited. The short - term rebound sustainability of PP depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the rebound drive of PE may weaken after the sentiment fades [1][3][4] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract was 6,766 yuan/ton (+29), and that of the PP main contract was 6,545 yuan/ton (-15). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,670 yuan/ton (+90) and 6,750 yuan/ton (+100) respectively, while PP spot price in East China was 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -96 yuan/ton (+61), in East China was -16 yuan/ton (+71), and PP basis in East China was -295 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate was 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was 104.8 yuan/ton (+17.2), PP oil - based production profit was -535.2 yuan/ton (+17.2), and PDH - based PP production profit was -722.0 yuan/ton (+53.5) [1] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit was 160.2 yuan/ton (+58.7), PP import profit was -365.7 yuan/ton (-33.2), and PP export profit was -36.5 US dollars/ton (-1.1) [2] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film operating rate was 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] Market Analysis - PE: The bottom - rebound of oil prices has strengthened cost support. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, it is not a substantial reversal. The supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in low - cost imported goods and the return of some devices to produce standard products. The demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure exists under high supply [3] - PP: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and the supply - side reduction expectation and cost support have boosted prices. The supply pressure has been relieved in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the short - term rebound sustainability depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. Pay attention to the upstream maintenance dynamics [5] - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Not provided