贵金属日报：避险溢价加持，贵金属延续强势-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical tensions and potential inflation, the precious metals market is expected to remain strong. Gold and silver prices are likely to show an oscillating and strengthening pattern in the near future, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions are escalating as the US President Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials, asked US citizens to leave Iran, and was briefed on military and covert operation options against Iran. In terms of inflation, the US CPI and core CPI in December 2025 remained unchanged from the previous value, but the data's reference value for predicting the Fed's future policy path may be weakened. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 13, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1026.86 yuan/gram and closed at 1027.18 yuan/gram, a change of 0.09% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1028.82 yuan/gram and closed at 1031.00 yuan/gram, up 0.37% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 20,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,004.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,141,819 lots, and the open interest was 334,660 lots. During the night session, it opened at 21,431 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,943 yuan/kilogram, up 4.47% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.175%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.647%, also unchanged [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,633 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 4,147 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 370,792 lots, a decrease of 12.15% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 6,499 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,632 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,382,636 lots, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,070.80 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,348 tons, an increase of 40 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 13, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -546.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 48.90, a change of -0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 54.57, a change of -2.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 58,002 kilograms, a change of 1.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 700,304 kilograms, a change of 70.30% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 3,000 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show an oscillating and strengthening pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2602 contract may be between 1010 yuan/gram and 1050 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]