美豆产量上调，豆粕偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the current port inventory is high and the overall supply is sufficient, the market is still worried about the soybean arrival in the first quarter. Coupled with the recent general rise in commodities, the soybean meal price has been running strongly recently. However, the supply pressure brought by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the future is the most important influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the growth of Brazilian soybeans and USDA reports [3] - For the corn market, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and are currently mainly purchasing on demand, but they are still lower than the historical average. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, there will still be certain stocking needs in the future. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2761 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2314 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil exported 646,000 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,000 tons, a 121% increase from the daily average in January last year. As of last Thursday, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.6%, exceeding 0.3% in the same period last year. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 8, 2026, was 1.53 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1.275 million tons. The US soybean inventory in the quarter ending December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] Market Analysis - The current high port inventory and sufficient supply, along with concerns about the first - quarter soybean arrival and the general rise in commodities, have led to a recent strong performance in soybean meal prices. However, the future supply pressure from the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans is the key factor [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2561 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Market Information: Brazil exported 1.674 million tons of corn in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 279,000 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average in January last year. The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending January 8, 2026, was 1.49 million tons, within the market expectation of 900,000 - 1.575 million tons. The US corn inventory in the quarter ending December 1, 2025, was 13.282 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the same period in 2024 [4] Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and are currently purchasing on demand, but they are still lower than the historical average. With the approaching Spring Festival, there will be stocking needs, and attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]