纯苯苯乙烯日报：继续关注油价对芳烃成本传导-20260114

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests continuing to monitor the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on oil prices and their cost transmission to BZ (benzene) and EB (styrene). Benzene's fundamentals are still weak, with port inventories at a historical high and low downstream demand. Styrene's port inventory decreased more than expected, with a slow recovery in production and continued downstream procurement [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 129 yuan/ton (+39), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 195 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 157 yuan/ton (+61 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, the CFR China processing fee is 132 dollars/ton (+8 dollars/ton), and the FOB Korea processing fee is 130 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton). For styrene, the non - integrated production profit is 375 yuan/ton (-21 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress. Downstream of pure benzene, caprolactam production profit is - 755 yuan/ton (-125), phenol - ketone production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+93), aniline production profit is 909 yuan/ton (+64), and adipic acid production profit is - 841 yuan/ton (-77). Downstream of styrene, EPS production profit is 87 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 213 yuan/ton (+85 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 692 yuan/ton (+178 yuan/ton) [1][2]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 32.40 million tons (+0.60 million tons), and its operating rate further decreased due to low processing fees. Styrene's East China port inventory is 100,600 tons (-31,700 tons), East China commercial inventory is 59,900 tons (-17,400 tons), and the operating rate is 70.9% (+0.7%) [1][2][3]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS operating rate is 46.72% (+3.07%), PS operating rate is 58.90% (-1.50%), and ABS operating rate is 69.80% (-0.10%) [1][2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam operating rate is 74.22% (-1.30%), phenol operating rate is 85.50% (+4.50%), aniline operating rate is 61.31% (+1.50%), and adipic acid operating rate is 67.60% (-0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on EB2603 for hedging, and take a neutral stance on BZ. - Basis and Inter - period: Go short on the spread of BZ2603 - BZ2605 when it is high. - Cross - product: Go long on EB2602 and short on BZ2603 [4].