锌价估值持续偏低

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The absolute valuation of zinc is low, and long - term macro factors are still bullish. The report remains optimistic about consumption. Although consumption enters the traditional off - season, zinc consumption maintains relative strength, and the inventory accumulation rate is slow. The supply pressure is expected to decrease quarter - on - quarter, and zinc shows relative resistance to decline under capital disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Category Market Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - $40.90 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,330 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 70 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,290 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,260 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [1]. - Futures: On January 13, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,215 yuan per ton, closed at 24,235 yuan per ton, up 205 yuan. The trading volume was 152,709 lots, and the open interest was 68,022 lots. The highest price was 24,735 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,035 yuan per ton [2]. - Inventory: As of January 13, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 118,300 tons, down 200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for purchasing domestic ores has declined. The domestic ore TC remains stable, while the imported ore TC continues to decline. The Antamina's latest quotation is 0 - 10 dollars per ton. The raw material available days of smelters are not high, and the short - term TC is difficult to rise. The comprehensive smelting profit is difficult to repair, and the output in the first quarter may still be lower than expected, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to decrease quarter - on - quarter. Consumption enters the traditional off - season, but zinc consumption maintains relative strength, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slow, and the spot premium remains [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]