国债期货日报：资金面收紧，国债期货大多收涨-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting released a signal of loose money, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued while the uncertainty of global trade increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% (-2.44%); the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% (+1.83%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.18, with a day - on - day increase of 0.30 (+0.30%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9739, with a day - on - day increase of 0.003 (+0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a day - on - day increase of 0.05 (+3.39%); DR007 was 1.55, with a day - on - day increase of 0.06 (+3.84%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.17 (+11.44%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.61, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.52%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.52%) [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.85 yuan, and 111.35 yuan respectively, and their price changes were 0.00%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.28% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.036 yuan, 0.000 yuan, 0.015 yuan, and 0.058 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - On January 13, 2026, the central bank conducted a 358.6 billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through a quantity - tendering method [2]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.391%, 1.523%, 1.534%, and 1.559% respectively, and the repurchase rates had rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific numerical or detailed information provided other than the figure names. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical or detailed information provided other than the figure names. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical or detailed information provided other than the figure names. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical or detailed information provided other than the figure names. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical or detailed information provided other than the figure names. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].