Guoxin Securities·2026-01-14 02:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pesticide industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the industry. This will initially squeeze profit margins for glyphosate producers but may lead to price increases due to heightened export demand and domestic spring planting preparations. In the medium to long term, if price increases do not match the loss of export tax rebates, companies will face higher costs, prompting further capacity reductions and encouraging a shift towards higher-value products [3][4] - The price of glyphosate has significantly decreased from a historical high of 370,000 yuan/ton to 43,900 yuan/ton, a drop of 88.14%, enhancing its cost-effectiveness and driving rapid market demand growth. China's glyphosate production is projected to increase from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 45.78% [8][9] - The export value of pesticide formulations is expected to continue rising, with the export amount for pesticide formulations in 2024 reaching 61.36 billion yuan, surpassing the export amount of raw materials for the first time, accounting for 54.12% of total pesticide exports [12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cancellation of export tax rebates is a significant change for pesticide companies, which have relied on these rebates as a crucial source of funding for normal operations. The current competitive landscape is challenging, with many companies facing profitability pressures [4] Market Dynamics - Glyphosate's price drop has led to a notable increase in demand, with production capacity expected to grow significantly. The industry has maintained high operating rates, with glyphosate production facilities operating at over 80% capacity for eight consecutive months, indicating strong downstream demand [9] Export Trends - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain raw pesticides does not affect pesticide formulations, which continue to enjoy a 9% export tax rebate. This is expected to further boost the export volume and share of pesticide formulations in the market [12] Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Lier Chemical, a leader in chlorinated pyridine herbicides and glyphosate, and Limin Co., which is seeing price increases in multiple main pesticide products [16]