铝：偏强运行，氧化铝：继续探底，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Alumina: Bearish [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The aluminum market is expected to remain strong, while the alumina market will continue to decline. The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Market Data Summary 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,375 yuan, down 275 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the open interest was 370,981 lots [1]. - Alumina: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,780 yuan, down 86 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the open interest was 553,364 lots [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,165 yuan, down 175 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,925 lots, and the open interest was 22,099 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 740,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 100,800 tons, up 3,300 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price was 2,688 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,500 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. 4. Other Information - The New York Fed President Williams warned against undermining the independence of the central bank and said that the current monetary policy stance is stable, with no need to adjust interest rates in the short term. He expects GDP growth of 2.5%-2.75% in 2026 and inflation to fall back to the 2% target in 2027 [2]. - The CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts from a fixed amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. The margin ratio for some non-high-risk gold contracts will be adjusted to about 5% of the nominal value, and about 9% for silver [2]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 1, 0, and 1 respectively [2].