对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强PTA：聚酯计划减产，关注兑现力度MEG：估值下方空间有限

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to be unilaterally strong. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials, and hedging strategies such as going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on SC and short on PX. Although PX supply is currently loose and downstream PTA polyester's future operation may decline, the rising oil price provides cost support, and the unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend [7]. - PTA has strong cost support. The strategy of going long on SC and short on PTA is recommended. The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. Pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the impact of polyester's planned production cut needs to be observed. PTA is expected to remain in a tight - balance state [7]. - MEG is expected to have a short - term unilateral strong rebound, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the spring maintenance plan of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - PX: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7282, with a decline of 26 and a decline rate of 0.36%. The PX5 - 9 spread was 58, down 12 from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5140, with a decline of 2 and a decline rate of 0.04%. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 52, up 4 from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3815, with a decline of 65 and a decline rate of 1.68%. The MEG5 - 9 spread was - 118, down 14 from the previous day [2]. - PF: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6506, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 58, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - SC: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 446.7, with an increase of 9.2 and an increase rate of 2.10%. The SC2 - 3 spread was - 1.1, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - PX: The previous day's price of PX CFR China was 898.67 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The previous day's price of PTA in East China was 5060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The previous day's price of MEG spot was 3682 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Naphtha: The previous day's price of naphtha MOPJ was 561.25 dollars/ton, up 3.25 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - Brent Oil: The previous day's price of Dated Brent was 68.56 dollars/barrel, up 3.15 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - PX: On January 13, the PX price rose. The estimated price of PX was 899 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from January 12. The Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea prices assessed by Platts on January 13 were 898.67 dollars/ton and 877.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 50 cents/ton. South Korea's S - Oil will shut down its No. 1 xylene production line with an annual output of 800,000 tons for planned maintenance in March [3][5]. - PTA: The current PTA operation rate is maintained at 78%. There is an overhaul plan for Yisheng New Materials' device in January, so the load increase space is limited. Polyester filament factories discussed production cuts, with a planned reduction of 15% in FDY production, and the impact on the overall polyester load depends on the implementation of the production - cut plan [7]. - MEG: The restart time of a 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Henan is to be determined. It was shut down around the end of 2025 to replace the catalyst, with an expected shutdown time of about two weeks [5]. - Polyester: On January 13, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by around 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 87% by around 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [6].