瓶片短纤数据日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The PX market has experienced a rapid increase, driven mainly by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, creating an "irrational boom" with self - reinforcing trends. Despite concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving aromatics extraction economics. The PX market is at a critical juncture between speculative sentiment and fundamental tension. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operations, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread supports aromatics, and new polyester installations keep polyester load and PTA consumption high, with increasing inventory willingness and strengthening basis. Although domestic polyester demand weakens seasonally, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price and Spread Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 on 2026/1/12 to 5060 on 2026/1/13, a decline of 40 [2] - MEG inner - market price dropped from 3734 on 2026/1/12 to 3686 on 2026/1/13, a decrease of 48 [2] - PTA closing price fell from 5142 to 5140, a decline of 2 [2] - MEG closing price decreased by 65, from 3880 to 3815 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6520 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from 38 to 34, a drop of 4 [2] - The 2 - 3 spread increased from 18 to 16, an increase of 2 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - fiber price decreased from 5275 to 5250, a decline of 25 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - fiber increased from 1245 to 1270, an increase of 25 [2] - East - China water - bottle chip price decreased from 6125 to 6097, a decline of 28 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6125 to 6097, a decline of 28 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6225 to 6197, a decline of 28 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 810 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 4080 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15365 to 15610, an increase of 245 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1469 to 1377, a decline of 93 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 514 to 536, an increase of 22 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 399 to 449, an increase of 50 [2] Market and Production Indicators - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 87.00% to 80.00%, a decline of 7.00 percentage points [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main - contract futures decreased by 24 to 6506. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factory prices were stable, while trader prices slightly declined. Downstream buyers purchased on - demand, and on - site transactions were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural - white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East - China market was 6380 - 6650 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North - China market, it was 6500 - 6770 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; and in the Fujian market, it was 6440 - 6630 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6100 - 6180 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated upward. The cost - side support was strong. Most supply - side quotes remained stable, with local supplies being slightly tight. The low - end price center shifted slightly upward. The overall market trading atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]