养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Oil: The January USDA supply - demand report was bearish, and the decline of CBOT soybeans and the rise of palm oil prices affected soybean oil. With sufficient domestic supply, the upward movement of soybean oil may be hindered. It is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8080 - 8100 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is in a destocking state. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister may affect Sino - Canadian relations. If the trade relationship eases, the price may fall. It is advisable to short at high levels. The 05 contract has a support level of 8650 - 8700 and a resistance level of 9300 - 9350 [3]. - Palm Oil: The MPOB December report was slightly bearish but had limited impact. With the approaching of the Indian New Year in February, the export demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low levels. The support level of the main 2605 contract is 8300 - 8350, and the resistance level is 8950 - 9000 [4]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2: The January USDA report was bearish, causing the decline of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to short soybean meal and hold the 3 - 5 long spread of soybean meal [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit put pressure on the domestic rapeseed market. The supply increase expectation has not been realized, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high levels [6]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The USDA January report increased the US corn production, and the domestic market is affected by wheat and corn auctions. It is recommended to go long at low levels [7]. - Soybean No. 1: Affected by the USDA report, it is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [8]. - Hogs: The hog futures price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The near - term price is strong, and the far - term price has a premium. It is recommended that conservative investors hold long positions in the far - month contracts, and aggressive investors can go long after the spot pressure is released [8]. - Eggs: The egg futures price fluctuated. The consumption is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is recommended that aggressive investors go long at low levels [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Northeast soybeans have high - quality and high - price, high valuation, and weak upward drive | 4060 - 4080 | 4450 - 4460 | Oscillatory adjustment | Close long positions | | | Soybean No. 2 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean supply, good growth of South American soybeans, and restart of soybean auctions | 3430 - 3450 | 3580 - 3600 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | Weak international oil trends, sufficient domestic soybean oil supply | 7600 - 7650 | 8080 - 8100 | Oscillatory weakness | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Australian seeds have not entered the pressing process, domestic inventory is destocking, but supply increase expectation and global bumper harvest expectation pressure the price | 8650 - 8700 | 9300 - 9350 | Oscillatory operation | Short at high levels | | | Palm 05 | Short - term bearish factors may be exhausted, approaching consumption peak season | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Oscillatory strength | Go long at low levels | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Sufficient supply, resilient demand, start of imported soybean auctions | 2700 - 2720 | 2880 - 2900 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Low inventory and continuous destocking, market sentiment warms up, but fundamental expectation is bearish | 2270 - 2300 | 2440 - 2450 | Oscillatory strength | Short at high levels | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Support from the decline of high - quality corn supply, limited pressure from wheat and corn auctions, short - term price may be strong | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Oscillatory strength | Go long at low levels | | | Starch 03 | Follow the cost of corn and oscillate strongly | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Oscillatory strength | Go long at low levels | | Livestock | Hogs 03 | Feed price stops falling and rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Light - position trial long | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in newly - opened production + expectation of consumption peak season | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Buy at low levels | [12] b. Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: For soybeans, soybean meal, etc., different strategies such as long - spread, short - spread, and waiting and seeing are recommended according to the current and previous values and price changes [13][14]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For oils, protein, and energy and by - products, strategies such as waiting and seeing and shorting are recommended according to the price differences between different varieties [14]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17][18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operation rate of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, etc., and the operation rate of oil mills [19][20]. b. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months, including CNF prices and import - duty - paid costs [20]. - Weekly Data: It includes the key data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, the operation rate of starch enterprises, and the grain - selling progress of farmers [21]. c. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market data such as breeding costs, profits, and slaughter data [21][23][24]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock (Hogs and Eggs): It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices, white - strip prices, etc. [26][27][28] - Oils and Oilseeds: - Palm Oil: It shows the production, export, inventory, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import and domestic inventory data of palm oil in China [35][36][39] - Soybean Oil: It includes the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and domestic soybean oil mill operation rate in the United States [42][44] - Peanuts: It shows the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the peanut crushing profit, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil [47][49] - Feed: - Corn: It includes the closing price, spot price, basis, and inventory data of corn, as well as the consumption and processing profit of deep - processing enterprises [51][52][58] - Corn Starch: It shows the closing price, spot price, basis, operation rate, and inventory data of corn starch [63][65] - Rapeseed: It includes the spot price, basis, inventory, and crushing profit of rapeseed products such as rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [70][72][77] - Soybean Meal: It shows the growth rate, inventory, basis, and price difference data of US soybeans [81][86][90] Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options Situation It provides the historical volatility data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options [97][98][99] Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation It shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [102][103][104]