烧碱订单偏弱，液氯价格上涨

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of PVC is weak. Although there may be a rush to export before April, the export situation is expected to decline significantly after April. The supply is abundant, downstream demand has a downward trend, and inventory is high. [3] - The supply - demand situation of caustic soda is also weak. The spot price is stable with a downward trend, the inventory is accumulating, the supply side is at a high - level of operation, and the demand side is lackluster. [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC futures contract is 4888 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis is -228 yuan/ton (+92), and the South China basis is -258 yuan/ton (+52) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - method PVC is quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - method PVC is 4630 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - method production is - 634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - method production is - 192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is - 9.0 US dollars/ton (+9.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - method is 80.23% (+2.00%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - method is 75.69% (+0.41%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.85% (+1.51%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2131 yuan/ton (-49), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 25 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 674 yuan/ton (-14), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1081 yuan/ton (-44), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 554.0 yuan/ton (-3.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 242.95 yuan/ton (-3.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 584.50 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2] - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2] Group 4: Market Analysis PVC - The cancellation of export tax rebates from April 1 may lead to a rush to export, which is beneficial for contracts before April. However, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream operation rate is generally flat with a downward trend, and inventory is high. The cost - side profit is still low compared to the same period last year, and the hedging pressure on the futures market exists. [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend, and the futures market is oscillating and correcting. The cost expectation is pushed up by the draft of differential electricity price in Shaanxi, but the impact is small. The supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, the supply side is at a high - level operation, and the demand side is lackluster. The price of liquid chlorine is rising. [3] Group 5: Strategies PVC - Unilateral trading: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go long on the V03 - 05 spread when it is low - Cross - variety trading: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral trading: Oscillation with a weak trend - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go short on the SH03 - 05 spread when it is high - Cross - variety trading: None [5]