综合晨报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - Crude Oil: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - Asphalt: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - Precious Metals: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - Base Metals - Copper: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - Aluminum:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - Zinc: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - Tin:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - Carbonate Lithium: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - Industrial Silicon: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - Polysilicon: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - Iron Ore: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - Coke & Coking Coal: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - Urea: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - Methanol: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - Pure Benzene: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - Styrene: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - PX & PTA: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - Soybean No. 1: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - Corn: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - Livestock & Poultry Products - Pig: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - Egg: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - Cotton: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - Sugar: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - Apple: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - Wood & Pulp - Wood: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - Pulp: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - Stock Index: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - Treasury Bond: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Route): Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]