蛋白数据日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations. It further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.11 million tons, which is bearish. The US soybean quarterly stocks report also showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than expected and bearish. With no significant weather - driven speculation in South America in the short term, and Brazil starting harvest, the impact of January harvest selling pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums should be monitored. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly. The recent full - premium auction of imported soybeans reflects the market's expectation of a soybean shortage in March, but the large auction volume will supplement the domestic soybean supply in Q1 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Basis Data - On January 13th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 379, up 19; the 43% soybean meal spot basis against the main contract in Rizhao was 399, up 29; in Tianjin was 439, up 29; in Dongguan was 359, up 9; in Zhanjiang was 419, up 29; in Fangcheng was 419, up 19; the rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 90; M3 - 2 was 356, up 29 [6]. 3.2 Inventory and Production - related Data - Data on China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mills' operating rate are presented in the form of historical trend charts from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.3 Spread and International Data - Spread data includes RM1 - 5, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong, and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the main contract. International data shows the 2025 Brazilian soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross margin [12].