聚酯数据日报-20260114

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market has dominated the price discovery mechanism, showing "irrational prosperity" characteristics. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high operating rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The polyester new device commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and the PTA consumption has remained high. The polyester demand has weakened seasonally, but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback. The overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance plans have increased, and the ethylene glycol price is difficult to get effective support under the background of continuous decline in coal prices. With the commissioning of new devices, the market supply pressure continues to increase. The coal-based ethylene glycol device return has put great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil rose from 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, to 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13, 2026, an increase of 8.10 yuan/barrel. PTA spot prices fell from 5100 yuan/ton to 5060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 5142 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee fell from 352.3 yuan/ton to 302.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.2 yuan/ton. The PTA disk processing fee fell from 394.3 yuan/ton to 382.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract basis fell from (58) to (69), a decrease of 11.0. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 100820 to 102122, an increase of 1302. The MEG main contract futures price fell from 3880 yuan/ton to 3815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65.0 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price fell from 3734 yuan/ton to 3686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan/ton. The MEG main contract basis fell from -140 to -147, a decrease of 7.0. The CFR China PX price rose from 897 to 899, an increase of 2. The PX-naphtha spread fell from 346 to 341, a decrease of 5 [2] Industry Chain Start-up Situation - The PX operating rate remained at 87.87%, the PTA operating rate remained at 77.40%, the MEG operating rate remained at 61.12%, the polyester load remained at 87.80%, and there was no change in all indicators [2] Product Price and Cash Flow - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F fell from 6695 to 6650, a decrease of 45.0; POY cash flow increased from (166) to (161), an increase of 5.0; FDY150D/96F fell from 6890 to 6870, a decrease of 20.0; FDY cash flow increased from (471) to (441), an increase of 30.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 7780 to 7795, an increase of 15.0; DTY cash flow increased from (281) to (216), an increase of 65.0. The sales rate of polyester filaments decreased from 69% to 46%, a decrease of 23%. Among polyester staple fibers, 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6520; the cash flow of polyester staple fiber increased from 9 to 59, an increase of 50.0; the sales rate of polyester staple fibers increased from 81% to 93%, an increase of 12%. Among polyester chips, semi-gloss chips rose from 5770 to 5780, an increase of 10.0; the chip cash flow increased from (191) to (131), an increase of 60.0; the chip sales rate decreased from 72% to 50%, a decrease of 22% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000-ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000-ton device will be overhauled recently, with the load gradually decreasing. The overhauls of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December are supplemented. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]