航运衍生品数据日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to experience a relatively concentrated rush of shipments before April 1st, which will consume the export volume of photovoltaic modules after April next year, and the subsequent export volume will decline. The rush of shipments may temporarily alleviate the decline in freight rates after the holiday, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies, and a price war in the off - season is inevitable. The main contract is supported in the short term, but the benefits of the rush of shipments need to be verified. Subsequently, the decline in exports will lead to a contraction in cargo volume, which is suitable for upstream and mid - stream enterprises to conduct short hedging on the 04 contract. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Container Freight Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The previous values are 1656, 1147, 2188, 1250, 3033, 1690, 1795, and 3143 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72%, 8.97%, and 2.83% respectively [4]. 3.2 Market News - The US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the ruling finds Trump's tariffs illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy [5]. - Maersk will continue to gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. From January 11th to 12th, Maersk Denver successfully passed the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea [5]. 3.3 EC Market - Market Review: The market is in a downward trend [6]. - Spot Price: In the fourth week of January, Maersk's quotes were differentiated. The Shanghai - Rotterdam route was quoted at $2700/FEU (a month - on - month increase of $100), while the Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk routes dropped to $2400/FEU ( $230 lower than the European base port). Hapag - Lloyd's quote center dropped to $2300 - 2700/FEU. In the OA alliance, the quotes were loose in the first half of January. From January 16th - 22nd, EMC's quote was $2800 - 2950/FEU, still at a high level but with weakened price - holding strength. YML's quote from January 16th - 22nd was $2600/FEU, lower than OA and MSC, and it has not followed Maersk's price cut. MSC's quote in the second half of January was $2840/FEU, the same as the first half, and did not follow Maersk's price cut [6]. - Logic: The State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax - refund policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports an average of 35,000 - 40,000 TEU of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total export volume on the European route. To avoid losing tax - refund benefits and increasing export costs, enterprises are rushing to ship before the policy takes effect. It is estimated that before April 1st, the additional cargo volume on the European route due to the rush of shipments will be about 30,000 TEU, which will consume the capacity of 2 ships with a capacity of 15,000 TEU. After April, it is expected that the monthly shipping volume on the European route will decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%, putting pressure on the demand for far - month contracts [6].